MORE
ON MIDDLING:
Middling - Winning Both Sides of the Game
If a
sportsbook fears anything these days it is getting 'sided'
or 'middled' on a game. It happens when a linesmaker posts
numbers that are in effect too strong, so when the book moves
off the number, it attracts action on the opposite side. The
result? The bookie is in danger of losing both sides of the
wager.
For instance,
let us say the Utah Jazz are visiting the Los Angeles Lakers
and the line opens with the Lakers favored by three points.
The players take a liking to the Lakers and lay the three
points with the home side. If enough people follow, the bookmaker
will feel compelled to move the pointspread in order to attract
money to the Jazz side of the proposition (as well as slowing
down the flow of money to the Lakers side).
However,
neither Lakers -3 1/2, nor Lakers -4 attracts any significant
Jazz money, nor slows down the flow of money on the Lakers.
It isn't until the price hits Lakers -4 1/2 that the players
step in and play the Jazz +4 1/2. The price then settles in
at Lakers -4 and attracts some two-way action until game time.
What all
this means is that -4 was probably the "correct"
line for this game or the one that would have attracted "two-way"
action since that is where the price finally settled.
Though
there is really no way to tell what would have happened if
the game had opened at Lakers -4. It might have attracted
two-way action, it might have been a dead game that attracted
no action at all or it could even have attracted money on
the Jazz and caused a line move in the opposite direction.
One person deciding there was value on taking the Lakers could
have caused the movement on this game. One large wager could
have moved the line at one establishment, and then copycats
and the arbitrageurs might have stepped in.
Copycats
are just that; players who have no idea or opinions of their
own but who wait for a line move and then go along with it,
figuring the "smart money" is on that side of the
game. Arbitrageurs are those who are looking to 'side' or
'middle' a game: having seen the pointspread move in one direction
at one establishment they might have decided this game would
likely present a side or middle opportunity. Thus
they would bet the Lakers, hoping to drive the price up farther
or start a stampede of action with the thought of buying back
the Jazz later on.
With the
sportsbooks all linked together by computer they can move
their lines as fast or faster than the players, making the
art of 'middling' somewhat extinct. Some shops move their
lines without accepting any money on a game at all. They are
so worried about so-called "smart money" or about
being sided or middled. If
they see a game move a half-point at a house down the street,
they might very well move their line a half-point without
even taking a wager. The dream of every house and sportsbook
manager is to have balanced two-way action on every game and
thus be guaranteed a profit.
If the
game had opened Lakers -3 and gone to Lakers -3 1/2 before
the buy back on the Jazz then the house would have been in
danger of being 'sided' on this game.
- A
'middle' can only occur when a game moves either 1 1/2 points
from its opening number if it opened on a whole number,
or one point if it opened on a half number. That is, a pointspread
must move through and over a whole number in order for the
possibility of a 'middle' to exist.
- A
'side' though can occur when a game moves as little as one-half
of one point.
In our example above, if the game opened Lakers -3 and then
moved to Lakers -3 1/2 in response to action on the Lakers
and that half-point move attracted corresponding Jazz money
at +3 1/2 then the house would be in danger of getting 'sided'
on this game.
If the
Lakers won by three points then whatever monies had been wagered
on the Lakers would be refunded to the players (a "push")
while the wagers placed on the Jazz at +3 1/2 would be winning
ones. The house would have to pay on one side without winning
anything on the other: not something they are fond of doing.
There
is some question as to whether the house wouldn't be better
off just opening the game on a certain number and staying
with it, holding that number, and letting the players win
half of these major decisions and all the vig in the long
run. However, it is unlikely that all the shops would do this
and once one moves off the opening number the others would
feel compelled to do so to avoid one-sided action on a game.
Thus there
will always be opportunities for 'middlers' and 'sidemen'
to operate. These players usually have little or no opinion
on a game or games but look only for the opportunity to 'middle'
or 'side'. If sportsbooks in Las Vegas and elsewhere so fear
being 'sided' or 'middled' then it perhaps would be a good
idea for the player to set aside a portion of his bankroll
or perhaps even another bankroll entirely for 'siding' and
'middling' purposes.
- The
player needs to hit better than one out of every 11 attempts
at siding in order to show a profit
- The
player needs to hit better than one out of every 21 middles
in order to show a profit.
To elaborate,
a player attempting to 'side' a game will bet both sides of
a proposition, taking the best of it with each wager and hoping
that the game lands on exactly the number posted. That is,
with our Jazz-Laker example, he would have laid three points
with the Lakers and taken 3 1/2 points with the Jazz (if that
was all that was available). If
the Lakers had won by exactly three points he would have won
his Jazz wager (+3 1/2) and pushed (or tied) his Lakers wager
(-3).
However,
let's say he lost these wagers. The Lakers win by four or
more or the Jazz lose by two or less (or win the game outright).
If we assume an $1,100 wager on each side ($1,100 to win $1,000)
our player will lose one $1,100 wager while winning the other.
His total outlay was $2,200 but he gets $2,100 back for a
net loss of $100. If
he does this 10 times and loses every time, he is down $1,000;
if he hits on his 11th attempt, he makes $1,000 and is dead
even with what he started with, which is why he must hit better
than one of every 11 in order to show a profit.
With 'middles'
the principle is the same but the payoff greater and the odds
more in the player's favor. Remember, in order to present
the opportunity for a 'middle' a line must have moved either
1 1/2 points or one point if it opened on a half number.
With a
'side' the game either moves one-half point or one full point
if it began on a whole number. Thus, not only is the payoff
on a 'middle' twice as great compared to 'sides' -- the player
is attempting to win wagers on both sides of the proposition
rather than win one while pushing the other -- but the chances
of hitting are higher due to the fact the spread has moved
farther and offers a larger target area for the game to land
on.
With our
Jazz-Lakers example a 'middle' presents itself when the game
moves at least 1 1/2 points from its opening number of Lakers
-3. If the pointspread goes to Lakers -4 1/2 middlers get
excited. The smart player who anticipated the line move or
who timed the line move so he was still able to play the Lakers
at -3 now has the opportunity to play the Jazz at +4 1/2.
The middle will occur if the game ends with the Lakers winning
by exactly four points. In that case the player will win both
his wagers, collecting on Lakers -3 and Jazz +4 1/2.
When one
is shooting for a 'middle' one must realize the 'middle' also
contains within it the possibility of a 'side' as well. That
is, while the player hopes for the game to end with a four-point
Lakers' victory so he can 'middle' the game he will 'side'
the game (collecting on his Jazz wager +4 1/2 but pushing
on Lakers -3) if the Lakers win by three points.
The mathematics
of 'middling' is as follows.
- The
player wagers $1,100 to win $1,000 at Lakers -3 and $1,100
to win $1,000 at Jazz +4.5.
- If
the outcome is bad, that is, if the Lakers win by five or
more, the Jazz win outright or lose by two or less he will
lose one wager while collecting on the other, collecting
$2,100 after an outlay of $2,200 for a net loss of $100.
If he does this 20 times he will lose $2,000 (20 times $100).
- However,
if on the 21st attempt he is successful, then he will collect
both wagers for a total of $2,000, bringing him back to
even for his endeavors. Thus a player attempting to play
'middles' needs to hit better than one out of every 21 plays
in order to show a profit.
That is
not all that difficult to do and that is why the house and
bookmakers so fear 'middlers'. The fear often turns to ridicule
and spite as if you ask a bookie or sportsbook manager what
he thinks about 'middlers'. You
will get a very derogatory answer to the effect that "most
of them can't beat the line so they just try 'middles' as
a last resort."
If the
bookies or the house so fear 'middles' then the astute player
should try to give them what they fear. If you are in a boxing
match with an opponent who fears and has been hurt by a big
right hook don't you look for an opportunity to throw the
big right hook? If you'll pardon the expression, you bet you
do! So, the serious player should have a bankroll set aside
for 'middling' purposes, separate from the one he uses for
his ordinary wagers.
The name
of the game in sports betting is showing a profit and it matters
not how one gets there as long as one arrives. It is not how
fast one gets there either: it is getting there alive and
with the money that counts.
Try middling
with our recommended sportsbooks
... just don't let them know what you're up to.
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There's
a very simple yet profitable betting technique known as "middling".
Middling is the strategy of betting both sides of a match
up because the pointspread has changed or differs enough between
two books that it provides a middle number that would result
in both sides covering the spread. To more clearly understand,
let's take a look at this example using an NFL football game: