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Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: Understanding ROI and Early Open Championship Picks

by Craig Edwards
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Sahith Theegala

Last week we began the Chronicles of a Pro Bettor and then looked at what CLV (Closing Line Value) is and applied it to our futures betting on the US Open.

This week, the Pro Bettor will discuss ROI, its meaning in betting terminology, and how it is the true barometer of balancing betting variance long term. The Pro bettor discusses his methods and how he balances variance for bankroll growth and a strong ROI.

The Pro Bettor also takes an early view on the Open Championship at Royal Troon in mid-July for readers to build their futures portfolio.

What is ROI and How Does It Illustrate Betting Variance?

ROI is the abbreviated term for Return on Investment and a fundamental requirement for any profitable bettor.

For golf bettors, an ROI of 20% is an achievable goal long term but betting variance can be cruel with elongated losing stretches.

Golf bettors wager at bigger prices due to tournaments having anywhere between 60 and 156 players. The average price of golf bettors winning the outright will often be between (+500) and (+5000) and on occasion prices above (+10000) are known to win.

This means finding winners is harder than betting on traditional spreads of NFL, NBA or MLB games.

Equally, though betting lines in those matches at (-110) may limit your winnings, losing runs are more manageable. Therefore, expect a strong bettor on those sports at average prices of (-110) to show an ROI of 5% upwards.

How to Achieve the Best Long-term ROI and Bankroll Growth?

As a pro bettor, I like to balance the high variance of golf betting with short-term bank growth and the only way to do that is to have a portfolio of shorter-priced betting to complement your portfolio.

This will reduce the stress short term on your bankroll, that golf outright betting on the bigger priced markets creates.

To achieve this there are different ways to have a shorter-priced range portfolio, you can bet the (-110) average spread lines.

Or, the golf betting markets with shorter prices such as the place markets (top 5, top 10, and top 20) as well as the other golf options of match bets, two-ball or three-ball bets.

I tend to practice all of the above!

Early Open Championship Value

Last week was the U.S. Open, this week we find your Open Championship futures.

Where is the 2024 Open Championship played? On July 18, the 152nd Open Championship will be played at Royal Troon in Scotland. The last time the Claret Jug was hosted at the course was 2016, when Henrik Stenson won with a brilliant 20-under par total, from Phil Mickelson, who himself scored superbly at 17-under par.

To bring a better context to their outstanding performances in that epic duel, third place was a distance eleven shots back at 6-under par.

Sahith Theegala Looks Like a Future Open Champion

For a while now, I have believed that Sahith Theegala’s best chance of a major championship is likely to come over in Great Britain at the Open Championship. He is instinctively a natural in windy conditions with his ability to shape shot both ways as illustrated at the season opener Sentry Tournament of Champions at a breezy Hawaii where he was runner up.

For our CLV argument, Theegala has been priced (+5000) or lower in the three American majors of 2024 so far yet we are now getting (+7000) about the twenty-six-year-old Californian winning the Open Championship in a few weeks.

Open Pick: Sahith Theegala (+7000) at Everygame

Huge CLV With Louis Oosthuizen

Betting price versus actual chance is a creator of huge CLV which as explained last week builds ROI. With volume over time profit will follow and one such spot is Louis Oosthuizen at this year’s Open Championship at prices of (+10000) upwards. That price is inflated by a minimum of x3 which is very attractive in comparison to his chance of winning which was historically priced at sub (+3300) before his defection to LIV Golf.

That career change for LIV has seen the forty-one-year-old South African unable to qualify for the other three majors this season which has made him the “forgotten man” and built the price.

As a previous winner of the Open, Oosthuizen has no such concerns given his strong form on LIV Golf. Combined with his two forays onto the DP World Tour in South Africa at the end of 2023, both of which he won, prices of (+10000) need to be taken now!

Open Pick: Louis Oosthuizen (+10000) at BetOnline

author avatar
Craig Edwards
Craig Edwards, an online tipster in golf and snooker for over four years, boasts a track record of 7800 bets with a 28% return on investment. A snooker professional from 1988 to 1996, he was once a single-figure handicap golfer. Achieving the 282nd position in the WSOP MAIN EVENT in 2007, Craig possesses a unique insight into the psychological shifts of professional sportsmen, anticipating their mindset week by week.

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