College Football Week 4 Betting Picks: One Big Favorite, One Coin Flip and One Market Mystery

Northwestern-Indiana: Three Touchdowns Is a Serious Tax

Indiana has done almost everything bettors could ask through three games.

The Hoosiers are 3-0 and have outscored opponents 145-16. Their defense has allowed just one offensive touchdown through three weeks, while the offense has produced 461 yards per game. The Indiana Week 4 game notes confirm Friday’s Big Ten opener in Bloomington.

So why am I interested in Northwestern?

Because the spread is 23.5 points.

Northwestern is 2-0 after beating Colorado 41-7, and quarterback Aidan Chiles is coming off a five-touchdown performance. The Wildcats forced four turnovers in that victory and have already demonstrated they can create short fields rather than asking their offense to manufacture everything from scratch.

Indiana can be substantially better and still fail to cover.

That is the distinction bettors sometimes hate because it ruins a perfectly enjoyable 34-17 victory. But 34-17 is also precisely why getting more than three touchdowns matters.

Betting pick: Northwestern +23.5

Prediction: Indiana 34, Northwestern 17

If the spread drops toward +21, much of the appeal disappears.

Clemson-Cal: A Coin Flip With Real Travel Consequences

Clemson-Cal is the best pure handicapping game of the three because the market cannot establish meaningful separation.

Some boards have Clemson around -1.5. Others have shown Cal -1.5. Totals are hovering around 49.5 to 50.5.

Translation: pick the winner.

Clemson is 2-1 after recovering from its 51-10 opening loss at LSU with victories over Georgia Southern and North Carolina. Cal is also 2-1, having followed its UCLA loss by beating Syracuse and Wagner.

The fascinating part is how different those recoveries look.

Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for a career-high 413 yards and three touchdowns in the 49-7 Wagner win. Clemson, meanwhile, finally showed more offensive stability in beating North Carolina 28-20.

Then comes geography. Clemson is playing a conference game on the West Coast for the first time in program history, and the Friday night ACC matchup begins at 10:30 p.m. ET.

That does not automatically make Cal the pick. But it removes any reason to treat Clemson as an obvious road favorite simply because of brand recognition.

I still prefer Clemson’s roster if the game comes down to one late possession.

Betting pick: Clemson moneyline near even odds

Prediction: Clemson 24, California 21

The Best Week 4 Bet Depends on the Number You Can Actually Get

My college football Week 4 betting picks start with Northwestern +23.5 because the spread asks Indiana to do more than merely prove it belongs among the nation’s top teams. The Hoosiers need to dominate another unbeaten opponent by more than three touchdowns.

Liberty-Coastal Carolina is better attacked through the Under 52.5 than through a side the market itself cannot agree on.

Clemson-Cal is the opposite: with virtually no spread separating them, the handicap is essentially a straight-up call. I trust Clemson slightly more, but not enough to lay an inflated number if the market suddenly jumps.

That leaves the card at Under 52.5 in Liberty-Coastal Carolina, Northwestern +23.5, and Clemson on the moneyline.

Week 4 does not require three heroic predictions.

It requires three numbers worth paying.