College Football Week 5 Odds: 3 Road Favorites Tested

Florida-Missouri: One Huge Win Can Move a Price Fast

Florida earned every bit of its new attention.

The Gators crushed Ole Miss 52-28 and ran for 302 yards. Jadan Baugh carried 29 times for 142 yards and three touchdowns. Duke Clark added 126 yards on only 12 carries.

Those numbers from Florida’s 52-28 win explain why Florida is now No. 8 and why the market is comfortable laying points with the Gators away from Gainesville.

But Missouri is not Ole Miss at The Swamp.

The Tigers are 3-1 and return home after a 31-24 loss to Mississippi State. Florida has now moved from roughly a field-goal favorite to around -4.5.

That extra point matters.

Baugh gives Florida a clear edge because the Gators can run the ball without asking quarterback Aaron Philo to carry every drive. But road SEC games have a way of turning clean plans into four-quarter fights.

My lean: Missouri +4.5.

Florida can be the better team and win 31-28. That would still make the Tigers the right side of the spread.

Ohio State-Iowa: Kinnick Makes 13.5 Feel Much Bigger

Ohio State has the most explosive player in any of these three games.

Jeremiah Smith just caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns as the Buckeyes beat Illinois 42-19. Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards, and Ohio State once again showed how quickly one close game can become a comfortable win.

That is why -13.5 does not look crazy.

Then you remember where the game is being played.

Iowa is 4-0 and just went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan 20-19. Hank Brown led a 91-yard final drive before finding Reece Vander Zee for the winning touchdown with no time left. The full last-second win at Michigan showed something that matters for bettors: Iowa is comfortable playing ugly, close football.

That matters when getting nearly two touchdowns.

Ohio State has far more speed. Smith may be the hardest player in the country to cover. But Iowa does not need to match Ohio State touchdown for touchdown.

The Hawkeyes need to slow the game, force long drives and make the Buckeyes work for every point.

My lean: Iowa +13.5.

I still have Ohio State winning 27-20.

Miami-Clemson: Seventeen Points at Death Valley Is a Lot

Miami may be the most impressive favorite of the three.

The Hurricanes are 4-0 and have scored 207 points. Darian Mensah has been excellent, and his latest game was another easy night: 23 of 27 passing for 338 yards and three touchdowns in Miami’s 52-3 win over Central Michigan.

Miami also held Central Michigan to 158 total yards.

So yes, the Hurricanes deserve to be favored.

But Miami -17 at Clemson is asking something very different.

Clemson’s season began with an ugly 51-10 loss at LSU. Since then, the Tigers have won three straight, including a 24-10 road win at California.

This is not vintage Clemson. It is also not a team I want to casually fade by 17 points at home.

Miami has been much better through September. Mensah has played cleaner football, the Hurricanes have more explosive weapons and their defense has given opponents very little room.

Still, Death Valley plus 17 is a large cushion.

My lean: Clemson +17.

Miami wins my score projection 31-20, which is comfortable without coming close to the spread.

The Best Bet Is Not Always the Better Team

This is the same problem we saw on an betting card: a team can deserve to be favored while the spread still asks too much.

Florida is better than Missouri right now. Ohio State has more talent than Iowa. Miami has looked far stronger than Clemson.

I would pick all three favorites straight up.

But my college football Week 5 odds card goes the other way against the spread: Missouri +4.5, Iowa +13.5 and Clemson +17.

That is not a bet against Florida, Ohio State or Miami.

It is a bet against paying too much after everyone else has already seen how good they looked last Saturday.