Home Betting Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: How Can Soderberg Lose an Eight-Shot Lead?

Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: How Can Soderberg Lose an Eight-Shot Lead?

by Craig Edwards
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Sebastian Soderberg

After futures picks for the U.S. Open and Open Championship, this week we will explain variance and how to balance the inevitable ebbs and flows in your bankroll. 

An apt subject given Sebastian Soderberg’s loss on Sunday in the Scandinavian Mixed Masters that hurt golf bettors around the globe, and for that reason, let’s start with what happened over on the DP World Tour.

How Can Soderberg Lose an Eight-Shot Lead?

Golf betting is huge nowadays and most bettors who bet the DP World and PGA Tours and last week over in Sweden will know that there was an epic failure from Sebastian Soderberg who held an eight-shot lead going into the final round of the Scandinavian Mixed Masters.

Going into the final round, Soderberg was trading at -2500 and bettors thought it was a sure thing.

Linn Grant shot a final round 65 from off the pace and amazingly started the final round eleven strokes back and priced at +100000.

I am not making excuses for Soderberg, but Grant was inspired and her chip-in at the 18th to post in the clubhouse, meant cheers reverberated around the course as the gap closed to four back with five holes of Soderberg’s round remaining.

Visually, it was obvious Soderberg got nervous. Not only that, but his pace of play became ponderous as it manifested, with him struggling to control his mind. The inevitable happened when needing a par up the 18th to win, he double bogeyed and lost!

What About the Bettors?

Bettors around the world were getting stuck into Soderberg during his final round and early doors before Grant’s late charge he traded as low as -10000, but in sport, strange things happen.

What if You Held a Sebastian Soderberg Slip at (+1800)?

Pre-event, the top sportsbooks priced Sebastian Soderberg at +1800 and he was a popular bet, so why did those bettors have to get so unlucky?

It happens, but they could have safeguarded their profits in running.

A couple of shrewd bettors I know who bet Soderberg pre at +1800 managed to safeguard their profit by backing Linn Grant just after she finished her final round and was the only one who could beat Soderberg at prices of +1600.

That is sensible trading, strange things happen and for a low outlay, it is silly not to lock up a profitable position regardless of the result!

What is Variance?

Variance is the term used for a statistical measurement for the spread of results between numbers in a data set.

How to Apply Variance to Your Betting

As a pro bettor, I have built up a statistical portfolio of bets over six years. In that time, there has been just under 13,000 wagers (2000+ a year), in which time I have shown a profit of 26.13% ROI (Return on Investment).

That is a big sample but once broken down, there was one full year that I only managed to just make a profit. It is quite possible my more than my fair share of players lost from winning positions when they shouldn’t like Soderberg as discussed which would be called poor or bad variance

Equally, there have been two years that my tips returned over 30% and that would be described as good or kind variance, and maybe on those occasions, my selections won from unexpected positions like Grant.

In the meantime, as a pro bettor, there is a need to try and keep my bankroll moving in the right direction by trade or arbitrage as mentioned, or building a volume of lower-priced selections.

What Are the Criteria for Lower-Priced Selections?

My process to finding value amongst lower priced selections is that on any week or day, the dynamics differ for the individual or teams. It could be this week’s course suits a player much more or just his current stats are better than his results.

For argument’s sake, if I am looking for a value top 20 selection, we need a theoretical margin to bet. If my assessment after research leads me to conclude that the actual chance of the selection winning is +100 but the sportsbooks are offering prices of +300, then we have a +EV (expected value) spot to bet.

To break even betting that price, our selection only needs to win 25% of the time and if the research is correct, the selection will win on that day or week’s dynamics approximately 50%.

Over time, with a volume of bets, that is a strong spot that will balance your bigger priced selections, while absorbing those short-term dips in bankroll.

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Craig Edwards
Craig Edwards, an online tipster in golf and snooker for over four years, boasts a track record of 7800 bets with a 28% return on investment. A snooker professional from 1988 to 1996, he was once a single-figure handicap golfer. Achieving the 282nd position in the WSOP MAIN EVENT in 2007, Craig possesses a unique insight into the psychological shifts of professional sportsmen, anticipating their mindset week by week.

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