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How To Bet on the Nobel Peace Prize?

by Scott Kacsmar
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Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Peace Prize is arguably the most prestigious award in the world. Created in 1901, it is the most widely known of the 5 Nobel Prizes, and it is handed out annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on behalf of the estate of Swedish chemist and inventor Alfred Nobel (1833-1896).

In his will, Nobel wished for the Peace Prize to be awarded to the person “who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses”.

As you might imagine, you can bet on who will win the next Nobel Peace Prize at top-rated sportsbooks like BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more). We have some tips below on how to bet on the Nobel Peace Prize.

What Does the Committee Value in a Nobel Peace Prize Winner?

We had the definition above of what the winner should represent, but that was from Nobel’s will prior to the 1900s. A lot about the world has changed in that time, and the Nobel Committee has no doubt expanded on the parameters for what it takes to win this prestigious award.

There have even been 19 years in which the award was not given out. Many of those were due to the pair of World Wars, but even in 1948, no Peace Prize was handed out as no living candidate was deemed suitable enough to deserve it. This is also seen as a tribute to Mahatma Gandhi, the famous Indian lawyer and non-violent activist who was assassinated in January 1948 just days after he was allegedly going to be a nominee again for the Peace Prize.

Since the conclusion of World War II in 1945, the Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to those best exhibiting efforts in these 4 main areas according to the official site:

  • Arms control and disarmament
  • Peace negotiation
  • Democracy and human rights
  • Work aimed at creating a better organized and more peaceful world

Since the turn of the century, there has also been a push to reward the efforts to limit any harm done by man-made climate change and any threats to the environment. This could be seen in 2007 when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.”

This is also why someone like Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has been a nominee in recent years, and you can expect her to be included in the 2024 list of nominees as well. Her odds at BetOnline to win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize are +1200.

Women Are Becoming More Frequent Winners

Since 1901, there have been 138 recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize with it going to 92 men, 19 women and 27 organizations. That means 66.7% of the time it has gone to an individual man, but that edge is dwindling over time. Also, keep in mind multiple people can share the award in a given year.

The 19 women winners marks the most women winners among the 5 Nobel Prizes. The 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner was Narges Mohammadi of Iran, who fought against the oppression of women in Iran and worked to promote freedom and human rights for everyone.

Mohammadi’s win marks the 5th time since 2011 that the Nobel Peace Prize has gone to a woman. There were 5 years with a woman winning in the period of 1983-2010 (28 years).

You no longer have to be Mother Tereasa, who won in 1979, to get recognition for the Nobel Peace Prize. Women are getting more representation by the Nobel Committee for this award.

Don’t Forget Organizations

Unlike the other Nobel Prizes, the Peace Prize can go to organizations, which it has 27 times. No one has won the award more than the Red Cross, who has won it 3 times in history.

It is not uncommon to see a year where an organization shares the Nobel Peace Prize with a like-minded individual. This just happened in 2022 when Memorial (Russia) and Centre for Civil Liberties (Ukraine) shared the award for their efforts at maintaining civil society in their respective countries after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out that year. Those human rights organizations shared the award with pro-democracy activist Ales Bialiatski (Belarus).

If you were informed of world events in 2022, you had to get the sense that something related to Russia-Ukraine had a chance to win a Nobel Peace Prize that year.

Stay up on Current Events

While some of these awards have been won for recognition of past efforts over the years like in the cases of Mother Theresa (1979) and former U.S. president Jimmy Carter (2002), many are about what the person or organization did in the last year. So, staying current on world events is a good way to get a read on who might be the recipient.

For example, in 2018, Denis Mukwege (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and Nadia Murad (Iran) shared the award for their efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war. This came on the heels of the MeToo movement that started in late 2017 with sexual violence against women very much in the forefront. MeToo cases and sexual war crimes are different, but they do share the traits of women being at the mercy of those in power who need to be held accountable.

For a more direct example, you can look back at the controversial 1973 winners Henry Kissinger (United States) and Lê Đức Thọ (North Vietnam). They shared the award “for jointly having negotiated a cease-fire in Vietnam in 1973.” Thọ ended up refusing the award, while Kissinger left behind a troubling legacy.

In 2020, COVID-19 was obviously the main story for the entire world. It was only fitting that the World Food Programme, an international organization within the United Nations, won for its effort to curb hunger around the world during a global pandemic.

Having a good feel for where the world is that year can help you predict where things are heading for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2024, there are many conflicts including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and of course Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza.

It is understandable how people like Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny (-200 at BetOnline) and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+800) who have stood up to Russian leader Vladimir Putin are heavy favorites for the award.

However, if someone engineered a successful cease-fire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, that would likely be deserving of a Nobel Peace Prize for 2024. What could possibly top that right now?

Keep an eye on the news, an eye on the odds, and root for peace.

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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