Home Betting Heads or Tails: The Last 10 Coin Tosses of the Super Bowl

Heads or Tails: The Last 10 Coin Tosses of the Super Bowl

by Rain Man
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super bowl coin toss result

The top offshore sportsbooks have released their odds for Super Bowl prop bets, including the result of the coin toss. Very simply, you can bet that the coin will land on “heads” or that the coin will land on “tails.”

Now, people assume that there is a 50% chance that either result will take place. But this is not a statistics class. In the abstract world of theory, there is a truly 50% chance that the coin will land on “heads” or “tails.”

However, in reality, especially in the reality of the Super Bowl, factors do come into play that shift the probability in favor of one side.

By looking at recent Super Bowl history, which makes sense of these other factors, I will recommend betting on “tails.”

Super Bowl 48

Ten years ago, Super Bowl 48 took place between the Seahawks and Broncos. The result of the coin toss was “tails,” which entailed (no pun intended) that Seattle won the toss. The Seahawks went on to win the game as well.

Super Bowl 49

Nine years ago, the Patriots and Seahawks competed in Super Bowl 49. At this game, the coin landed on “tails.” As a result, Seattle won the toss for the second year in a row but went lost the game on one of the most epic finishes in Super Bowl history.

Super Bowl 50

Eight years ago, Super Bowl 50 happened between Denver and Carolina. The coin landed on “tails,” which meant that the Panthers won the toss but would have to see how Peyton Manning and Co. raised the Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl 51

Seven years ago, Super Bowl 51 was between New England and Atlanta. The result of the coin toss was “tails.” Consequently, Atlanta won the toss. That’s the only thing the Falcons won that night as the Patriots staged the largest comeback in Super Bowl history.

Notice here the dominance of “tails.” We have four straight victories for the “tails” side.

Super Bowl 52

Super Bowl 52 took place six years ago between the Patriots and Eagles. The coin finally landed on “heads,” ending the four-year dominance of “tails.” New England won this coin toss but failed to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

Super Bowl 53

Five years ago, the Patriots and Rams competed in Super Bowl 53.

The coin landed on “tails,” with the result being that the Rams won the toss, but lost to Tom Brady and  Bill Belichick.

Super Bowl 54

Four years ago, the Chiefs played the 49ers in Super Bowl 54. In this game, the coin landed on “tails.” So, “tails” resumed its dominance, winning for a second straight year.

The 49ers won the toss yet went on to lose the game.

Super Bowl 55

Three years ago, Super Bowl 55 took place between the Buccaneers and Chiefs. The coin toss result was “heads,” ending the two-year streak of “tails.”

Kansas City won this toss but saw how Tom Brady won his last Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 56

Two years ago, the Rams and Bengals competed in Super Bowl 56. The coin landed on “heads,” and the Bengals won the toss.

However, it would be Matthew Stafford and the Rams who took home the Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl 57

Last year, the Chiefs and Eagles played in Super Bowl 57. The coin landed on “tails,” and, for a second straight time, the Chiefs won the toss. This also marks the end of the trend as the winner of the coin toss got to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Takeaways

The Super Bowl coin tends to land on “tails.” “Tails” has won three of the last five times and seven of the last ten times.

Now, at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) each side, “heads” and “tails,” is chalked at -101.

These historical trends suggest that “tails” is a good bet to make, especially with -101 being so cheap. You might wonder why “tails” would hit so often. Could we be “due” for more “heads”?

The thought that we’re statistically due for more “heads” just isn’t valid.

As you would learn in statistics class, coin tosses are independent events, which means the result of one outcome does not influence the outcome of another.

To explain through a contrast, if I tell you that I have a coin in one of two hands behind my back, and you guess wrongly the first time, then the consequence of your first guess is that the probability that your second guess will be correct goes from 50% up to 100%.

Conversely, if “heads” lands one time, then the probability remains the same that it will land again. There is no “due” in play. So much for the best case for “heads.”

The Pick

I like “tails” because there are specific factors in play that make “tails” the more probable outcome.

Reasons why “tails” would hit more than “heads” include the bias of the coin-flipper and the weight of the coin, which is produced every year by The Highland Mint.

History shows that the factors in play favor the “tails.”

Best Bet: Tails (-101) at BetOnline

author avatar
Rain Man
Hailing from Maryland, Rainman pursued his undergraduate studies at the University of Virginia, with an academic journey that spanned six different universities across the United States and Germany. It was during his time in Alabama that he delved into the world of sports betting. Rainman finds joy in watching and betting on a wide array of sports, passionately supporting his Wahoos, Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Cardinals, and VfB Stuttgart.

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