NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions: Falcons-Packers and Ravens-Cowboys

Two Week 3 favorites are moving in opposite directions, and that is more interesting than simply asking whether Green Bay and Baltimore are better football teams.

These NFL Week 3 betting predictions come down to price. Green Bay opened around -7.5 against an 0-2 Atlanta team and has been bet down to roughly -5.5. Baltimore opened around -2.5 against Dallas and is now sitting between -3 and -3.5 depending on the book. Bettors comparing offshore sportsbook options should care about those movements because crossing key numbers can change a good opinion into a bad wager.

NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions Start With Two Different Moves

Thursday’s line says the market has become more interested in Atlanta despite two ugly losses. Sunday’s number says bettors are willing to pay more for Baltimore even after the Ravens blew a second-half lead against New Orleans.

That is why blindly following movement can be dangerous. JoeWager’s guide to line movement strategy is relevant here: the move tells you something, but it does not automatically tell you which side to bet.

The player data behind those numbers matters more than the logos:

• Bijan Robinson has 254 yards from scrimmage through two games despite Atlanta’s offensive dysfunction.
• Lamar Jackson has thrown for 559 yards while Derrick Henry has rushed for 212 yards and four touchdowns.
• Dallas is allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game, a particularly unpleasant statistic before seeing Baltimore.
• Dak Prescott just threw four touchdown passes, while CeeDee Lamb produced 153 receiving yards and two scores against Washington.

Falcons-Packers: Michael Penix Changes Atlanta’s Offensive Math

Atlanta being 0-2 does not adequately explain the current version of the Falcons.

Michael Penix Jr. will make his first start of 2026 after completing his recovery from the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season. Atlanta’s quarterback change for Thursday comes after an offense that failed to reach the red zone in either of its first two games.

That is remarkable in the worst possible way.

Penix does not need to become an instant Pro Bowl quarterback for Atlanta +5.5 to work. He simply needs to make the passing game functional enough that Green Bay cannot devote its entire defensive plan to Robinson.

Robinson has 155 rushing yards and another 99 through the air. That versatility matters because it gives Atlanta a way to manufacture offense even if Penix needs time to settle into a live pocket again.

Green Bay’s job is making that pocket uncomfortable.

Lukas Van Ness produced nine tackles, 1.5 sacks, three tackles for loss and four quarterback hits in Green Bay’s overtime victory against the Jets. Jordan Love threw two touchdowns without an interception, although he finished with only 145 passing yards in the 20-17 Week 2 win.

Why Falcons +5.5 Is Better Than Betting Green Bay to Dominate

I still trust Green Bay more to win.

I do not trust the Packers enough to assume an easy Thursday night.

The short week matters, particularly with Green Bay managing offensive-line injuries and Jayden Reed’s neck issue. Atlanta has problems of its own—most notably A.J. Terrell Jr. landing on injured reserve—but the Falcons do not need to be complete to cover 5.5.

They need Penix to avoid turnovers, Robinson to keep the offense on schedule and the defense to make Love work through longer drives.

That is a realistic path.

Betting lean: Falcons +5.5

Prediction: Packers 23, Falcons 20

Green Bay can win the football game while Atlanta wins the wager. Those outcomes are not remotely contradictory.

Ravens-Cowboys: Derrick Henry Meets Dallas’ Biggest Weakness

If Atlanta-Green Bay is about a falling favorite, Baltimore-Dallas is about a favorite becoming more expensive.

The Ravens are 1-1, yet there is plenty to like underneath the record. Jackson has completed 38 of 56 passes for 559 yards while adding 74 rushing yards. Henry has carried 40 times for 212 yards and four touchdowns.

Now look at Dallas.

The Cowboys have allowed 173.5 rushing yards per game through two weeks. Their own Ravens matchup breakdown identifies stopping the run as an early problem, which is unfortunate timing when Henry and Jackson are waiting in Rio de Janeiro.

Baltimore can create the worst kind of defensive conflict.

Bring an extra defender down to control Henry and Jackson gets cleaner throwing windows. Stay light to protect against explosives and Henry gets to spend Sunday afternoon attacking smaller boxes.

Neither option is particularly relaxing.

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb Keep the Total Alive

Dallas does have one convincing counterargument: its passing offense can make Baltimore keep scoring.

Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns in the 37-20 victory over Washington. Lamb caught eight passes for 153 yards and two scores.

That is why the 52.5 total does not scare me away automatically.

Baltimore lost 24-17 to New Orleans after failing to finish the game properly, and Dallas has enough receiver talent to attack a Ravens defense that cannot simply spend four quarters waiting for Henry to control possession.

This is also the NFL’s first regular-season game at Maracanã Stadium in Rio, removing the usual Dallas home-field assumptions despite the Cowboys technically being designated as the home team.

Primary lean: Ravens -3 if available

Secondary lean: Over 52.5

Prediction: Ravens 31, Cowboys 27

Once Baltimore reaches -3.5, I become much less interested in laying the spread.

The Number Matters More Than the Favorite

The best NFL Week 3 betting predictions are not simply Green Bay and Baltimore because they look stronger on paper.

My preferred card is Falcons +5.5 and Ravens -3, with Ravens-Cowboys Over 52.5 as the alternate play.

Atlanta gets enough points for Penix and Robinson to make a close game valuable. Baltimore has the cleaner matchup because Henry and Jackson directly attack Dallas’ weakest early-season defensive area.

But the cutoff matters.

Give me Atlanta above five. Give me Baltimore at three.

Once those numbers disappear, the football analysis may stay exactly the same while the bet changes completely.

Scott Kacsmar

NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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