Home Betting Nobel Peace Prize 2024 Favorites: Will Alexei Navalny Be Honored This Time?

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 Favorites: Will Alexei Navalny Be Honored This Time?

by Scott Kacsmar
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Nobel Peace Prize 2024

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded at a ceremony every December 10th in Oslo, Norway. It is considered by the Oxford Dictionary of Contemporary History as the most prestigious prize in the world.

The intent of the award is to recognize the person or organization “who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses”.

The Nobel Peace Prize 2024 winner will be announced late this year, but you can always make your bets now at top-rated sportsbooks such as Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more) and BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more).

In fact, there are wildly differing odds and nominees at those sportsbooks, so we will break down our strategy and thoughts below on how to handicap the 2024 field. Keep in mind hundreds of names will ultimately be nominated, and only a select few will be officially confirmed by nominators as it is not a requirement to disclose every nominee’s name for at least 50 years.

Some of the 2024 nominees already confirmed include businessman Elon Musk, former U.S. President Donald Trump, Uyghur economist Ilham Tohti, chef José Andrés and British historian David Attenborough.

Let’s look at some of the Nobel Peace Prize 2024 favorites with their current odds of winning the prestigious award.

Sir David Attenborough (United Kingdom)

Historian and Broadcaster

  • Odds to Win: +1400 at BetOnline, +1500 at Bovada

If you have ever watched a popular nature documentary in the last couple of decades, chances are you have heard the iconic narration voice of Sir David Attenborough, the British historian and broadcaster who has done an invaluable service of documenting the sights and sounds of the natural world around us.

Attenborough has been a senior manager at BBC, but he is best known for his documentaries such as Life on Earth (1979), The Living Planet (1984), The Blue Planet (2001), Planet Earth (2006), Life (2009) and Our Planet (2019).

At 97 years old, Attenborough continues making his groundbreaking documentaries that have shown us everything from the animals to insects to oceans and even what dinosaurs looked like from all over the planet. They are an invaluable educational tool and are some of the most cherished documentaries ever created.

Attenborough was already a nominee in 2022 for the Nobel Peace Prize for his “efforts to inform about, and protect, Earth’s natural diversity, a prerequisite for sustainable and peaceful societies.”

He is on a short list of candidates with odds of +1500 or better to win this year. Not sure he can overcome the crazy events going on in the world right now that call for peace, but some kind of lifetime achievement award from some prestigious organization should be bestowed upon him for his admirable work over many decades.

Greta Thunberg (Sweden)

Environmental Activist

  • Odds to Win: +1200 at BetOnline, +1500 at Bovada

At BetOnline, Greta Thunberg is tied with several people and organizations for the 3rd-highest odds (+1200) to win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. Bovada has her tied with Sir David Attenborough for the 5th-best odds.

From Sweden, Thunberg rose to worldwide fame in 2018 when she began leading school climate strikes and doing public speeches, imploring politicians to face the deadly effects of climate change with a far more serious approach.

Thunberg has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in each of the last 5 years since emerging as the leading voice among young climate activists around the world:

  • In 2019, she was nominated “for her influential activism to make world leaders open their eyes to global climate crisis.”
  • In 2020, she was nominated along with School Strike for Climate “for their tireless work to make politicians open their eyes to global climate crisis.”
  • In 2021, she was nominated “for her pioneering campaign in the fight against climate crises.”
  • In 2022, she was nominated “for her tireless work to make politicians open their eyes to global climate crisis.”
  • In 2023, she was nominated along with Vanessa Nakate of Uganda “for their collaborative work against climate change and for climate action.”

Thunberg has yet to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but at just 21 years old, she has a long fight ahead of her and she will no doubt continue it this year and beyond.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (Belarus)

Political Activist

  • Odds to Win: +1200 at BetOnline, +550 at Bovada

A lesser-known name on the global scale, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is a 41-year-old political activist from Belarus. She ran for president of Belarus in 2020 after her candidate husband was arrested along with most of the other opposition leaders.

She was unable to defeat authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko, who has held the job since 1994. However, the contested results of the 2020 election, including vote rigging, were successful enough to the point where the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States do not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus.

After the 2020 election, Tsikhanouskaya was forced into exile in Lithuania where she is recognized as the legitimate head of state of Belarus, and where she formed an oppositional government.

She was tried in absentia by the Belarusian government in 2023 and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

Tsikhanouskaya has won numerous awards and honors for freedom and peace.

  • She was nominated in 2021 along with 2 collaborators for the Nobel Peace Prize “for their struggle for fair elections and for inspiring peaceful opposition against the illegitimate regime in Belarus.”
  • In 2022, she was again nominated by the Nobel Committee “for her brave, tireless and peaceful work for democracy and freedom in her home country.”

She has the 3rd-highest odds at Bovada (+550) of anyone currently listed.

Ilham Tohti (China)


  • Odds to Win: +1200 at BetOnline, +450 at Bovada

Another more obscure name, this one is interesting as Ilham Tohti has the best odds of anyone at Bovada (+450) to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Tohti is among a group of several nominees with +1200 odds at BetOnline, so that’s a large difference in odds between the sportsbooks.

Tohti is known for speaking out against the Chinese Communist Party for its treatment of the Uyghurs, an ethnic minority in China. You may recall U.S. presidents discussing the Uyghurs (pronounced “wee-guhr”) in recent years. The U.S. has condemned China for what it calls genocide against the Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities.

Tohti was one of the earliest voices to criticize this treatment as he used to run the website Uyghur Online. He was detained in July 2009 after he criticized the Chinese government’s policies toward Uyghurs in Xinjiang. In 2014, Tohti was arrested again, and computers were removed from his home. He was found guilty of “separatism” and sentenced to life imprisonment.

Since his sentencing, Tohti has been honored with numerous awards for freedom of speech and supporting human rights. He was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 “for his commitment to peaceful interethnic dialogue between Uyghurs and China’s Han majority.”

Tohti is again nominated in 2024 “for his role as ‘the true symbol of the Uyghur people’s fight for freedom’ under Chinese rule in Xinjiang.”

Volodymyr Zelensky (Ukraine)

President of Ukraine

  • Odds to Win: +800 at BetOnline, +500 at Bovada

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky continues to fight the war with Russia and Vladimir Putin, earning the respect and support of many in the West. The conflict started in early 2022 and wages on to this day despite the massive size of the Russian forces. The will of the people of Ukraine has been strong, and that trickles down from Zelensky’s leadership through this ordeal.

Naturally, Zelensky has been a favorite for the Nobel Peace Prize:

  • In 2022, he was nominated “for counteracting Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.”
  • In 2022, Zelensky was the odds-on favorite at bookmakers to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but he lost to the group of winners including Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and Center for Civil Liberties. It was right to bet on something involving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it went to the human rights organizations in Ukraine and Russia instead of Ukraine’s president.
  • In 2023, Zelensky was again a favorite for the Nobel Peace Prize with odds as high as +200 at some sportsbooks. But he did not win again, losing out to Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi, who fought against the oppression of women in Iran.
  • In 2024, here we are again with Zelensky having the 2nd-best odds at both Bovada and BetOnline to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Ukraine continues to hold off Russia and Putin from taking over its country.

However, if that hasn’t been enough to win the award for Zelensky in 2022 and 2023, is anything going to change this year?

Alexei Navalny (Russia)

Russian Opposition Leader

  • Odds to Win: -200 at BetOnline, not listed at Bovada

Finally, the odds-on favorite is Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who risked his life by going against Vladimir Putin. Navalny (1976-2024) was an anti-corruption activist who was never afraid to expose corruption in Putin’s government over the years.

This of course made him a threat, and he was barred from running in the 2018 presidential election. In August 2020, Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent. He was able to recover in Berlin where he accused Putin of the attempt on his life. When Navalny returned to Russia in January 2021, he was immediately detained for violating parole conditions. He was sentenced to 2.5 years in prison followed by more sham charges that could have kept Navalny in prison until 2038.

Sadly, things ended the way he always expected they would as per the message he had filmed in the 2023 Oscar-winning documentary Navalny before his return to Russia. He implored the people to never give up, and if he is killed, it proves how strong they are.

On February 16, 2024, it was announced that the 47-year-old Navalny died in prison. Many Western governments and human rights organizations have accused the Russian government of being complicit in his death.

Navalny’s story is over, but his legacy and impact should live on in Russia.

While Navalny has -200 odds at BetOnline to lead all nominees, he’s not even listed at Bovada at the moment. That’s very interesting because he has been among the favorites in recent years for the Nobel Peace Prize:

  • In 2021, Navalny was nominated “for his efforts for a peaceful democratization of Russia.”
  • In 2022, Navalny was nominated “for his campaign against the Kremlin.”
  • In 2023, Navalny was nominated “for his courageous opposition to the authoritarian regime in Russia despite imprisonment.”

One has to figure Navalny will be on a short list of potential winners this year for his ultimate sacrifice to fighting for a better Russia.

Best Bets for Nobel Peace Prize 2024

How do we see this one playing out? In simpler times with less conflict around the world, someone like Attenborough or Thunberg might have won. The latter should have plenty of opportunities down the road.

Tsikhanouskaya has not won before and has not really advanced her fight against Lukashenko, but she does continue to do important work there. Speaking of past nominees getting overlooked, that has been the case for Tohti, Zelensky and Navalny.

In Zelensky’s case, you could argue fighting a war is anything but peaceful. But it’s not like he could negotiate a cease-fire or else the Ukrainians will lose gravely. He must keep fighting.

Tohti’s ridiculous prison sentence in China should be a bigger story, and we can only hope it does not have the soul-crushing end that Navalny’s story had in Russia. The significance of standing up to Putin cannot be ignored, and it is easy to see why Navalny is a favorite with -200 odds at BetOnline to win. Curious decision by Bovada to not have him listed.

The safe pick is Navalny, but there is also good value in taking Tohti at +1200 odds on BetOnline. Maybe the committee will give him his due while he is still with us and fighting the good fight for his people, the Uyghurs.

Pick: Nobel Peace Prize 2024 Winner – Alexei Navalny (-200) at BetOnline

Pick: Nobel Peace Prize 2024 Winner – Ilham Tohti (+1200) at BetOnline

author avatar
Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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