Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: Never Be Afraid To Stand Alone!

NFL Betting Is Not About Public Opinion, It’s About Yours!

As a pro bettor, you cannot expect to make solid profits long-term without making bets that are uncomfortable and swim against the tide of public opinion. No sport does bet opinions as well as the NFL with their huge fan base, and franchise followings, let alone all the sharp syndicates betting throughout the week, moving the lines.

That’s why you must be strong of mind! Sometimes there will be uncomfortable bets for the soul to take but if your process of mind is happy for the reasons why, don’t let the heart rule your head! Regardless of the result, they are often +EV spots with CLV as the crowd pushes the line the other way!

A Sense of Deja’vu

Funnily enough, this week the Washington Commanders and the Baltimore Ravens have piqued my attention once again as they cross swords. It is hard not to envisage a high-scoring encounter between two of the NFL’s most attacking outfits.

As mentioned last week, my feeling is the Commanders have defensive frailties that are yet to be exposed and this week’s test against the Ravens will be the acid test of my theory.

Amazingly, for this 2024 season, the total is currently the highest of the year at 53.5.

The total started high at 51.5 after Sunday’s games and with droves of overs money it has already climbed two points. Given the trends of the early weeks when points were a rarity, this is a change in the vibe for the NFL, but for these two sides, it is a number that we can still play confidently on, while it stays below 54.

NFL Week 6 Pick

• Commanders/Ravens Over 52.5 (-110) at Bovada 

Defenses Get Banged Up, Points Tallies Increase

Point spreads are at the tightest they have been for fifteen years in the NFL. When the rules for the franchises of the NFL were set, those founding fathers would be happy with how this season is playing out with so many low-scoring tight matches.

The point spreads have never averaged so low for fifteen seasons, and the number of dogs covering their spread of a touchdown or less has never been as high. That said, things have changed in weeks 4 and 5, with week 4 averaging 45 points a game, and week 5 up to over 48. Considering that after week 3 the average was 40.5, that is quite a jump and harked back to the title stating how as the defenses start to get banged up, the points are increasing.

Naturally, when the points tally increases then the spreads will become wider, and a little harder to wager on for a bettor’s soul. But betting is a very psychological counterintuitive process and following the crowd will only make those sportsbooks richer.

There are some interesting spots this week to illustrate it and the one for us is the Washington Commanders at the Baltimore Ravens where the Commanders have been hugely popular at the start of the week and been bet down from 7 points to 6.

As you know, I have been looking for a spot to oppose the Commanders and perhaps this is it. The Ravens defense, who practices against their own Lamar Jackson, probably have the best preparation for the NFL’s new star quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who has been making the headlines so far for Washington in 2024.

Opposing the Commanders after they have won their last four games may seem wrong on the soul. However, at less than a touchdown available at Joe Wager best sportsbook BetOnline, I suggest adding a second line in the same game, on the Baltimore Ravens covering the spread.

Pro Bettor Pick

• Baltimore Ravens –6.5 (-110) at BetOnline