Home Betting Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: Understanding CLV and U.S. Open Picks

Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: Understanding CLV and U.S. Open Picks

by Craig Edwards
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Keegan Bradley

What is CLV?

CLV is betting terminology for Closing Line Value, an important principle of profitable betting and the backbone of being a successful bettor and handicapper.

The Closing Line of betting is the final price that the selection was bet at, prior to the start of the event or match. From that final line price, you should see the price taken for the wager by a profitable sharp bettor is nearly always better.

Why Taking That Better Price Matters!

A recent example of CLV was at the PGA Championship when Xander Schauffele was available in the weeks leading up to the event at prices between (+1600) and (+2200) at top-rated sportsbooks.

The week before the PGA Championship, the Wells Fargo Championship took place and the thirty-year-old from San Diego took the first-round lead.  That was on a Thursday, and over the next three days, Schauffele continued his fine form to finish runner-up against an inspired Rory McIlroy.

During the next week before the PGA Championship, the best price to be found about Schauffele was (+1400) and in the main (+1200) as bettors around America and the golfing globe took the bigger prices over the weekend.

By the start of the PGA Championship, those early Xander Schauffele bettors had bet dockets in their pockets with prices around (+2000). Once again, Schauffele took the first-round lead and on this occasion repelled all challengers to land his first major championship and the historic Wanamaker Trophy.

Imagine holding a (+2200) betting slip on Xander Schauffele as opposed to betting his price a few days later and getting only (+1200).  The difference that makes to your long-term profit is huge and an incredible markup on the starting price, bringing huge CLV.

Can We Apply CLV to the U.S. Open?

Now, with an understanding of what CLV is, the next challenge is to see if our U.S. Open betting slips (the event begins on June 13) not only have the best form chances but also the highest price possible between now and tee-off.

The 2024 U.S. Open will be played at Pinehurst Course No.2 in North Carolina. The track has been used on four occasions in the past (three times since 2000) for the prestigious major championship. The course was designed by the esteemed Donald Ross and is a long par 70 at over 7500 yards. The track has been revamped over the years to add length combatting the modern golfer while the putting surfaces are ultra dwarf Bermuda grass and Bermuda fairways.

“We need to know our selections will handle the course and to do this, we can use previous course results or similar correlations of course dynamics.” The Pro Bettor

Why Keegan Bradley for the U.S. Open?

For our first selection, it is the simple combination of course and current form to pinpoint a player with a strong chance and take the early CLV.

That player is Keegan Bradley who was 4th back in 2014 at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. The 37-year-old from Vermont will be arriving in North Carolina in strong form after a recent runner-up finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge. My prediction is that Bradley’s price will end up (+6600) and maybe (+8000) at best, so take BetOnline’s (+15000) now.

U.S. Open Pick: Keegan Bradley (+15000) at BetOnline

If Anyone Can, Collin Morikawa Can!

The next selection has no course experience because he was not a professional back in 2014, and he is Collin Morikawa. What he does have is a very particular set of skills (he is not Liam Neeson) suited to major championships illustrated by a PGA Championship win in 2020 and an Open Championship jug from 2021.

That set of elite skills has already been evident this season as Morikawa finished 3rd at the Masters Tournament and 4th at the PGA Championship. The 27-year-old Californian also has U.S. Open form which tilts the balance in our favor given how difficult the USGA set up the courses for this iconic event. The setup is the hardest in golf and demands huge patience from the golfer and Morikawa has experience with those demands.

The icing on the cake for our bet on Collin Morikawa and taking CLV of (+2500) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) is the putting surfaces of Bermuda grass which he has won on previously at the WGC Workday Championship at Concession and Zoso Championship, last fall at the Narashino Country Club, Japan.

U.S. Open Pick: Collin Morikawa (+2500) at BetOnline

author avatar
Craig Edwards
Craig Edwards, an online tipster in golf and snooker for over four years, boasts a track record of 7800 bets with a 28% return on investment. A snooker professional from 1988 to 1996, he was once a single-figure handicap golfer. Achieving the 282nd position in the WSOP MAIN EVENT in 2007, Craig possesses a unique insight into the psychological shifts of professional sportsmen, anticipating their mindset week by week.

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