Chronicles of a Pro Bettor: Who Wins the MVP of the Regular Season? 

This week, our betting professional changes his NFL direction a little by discussing his thoughts around the player award, the MVP (Most Valuable Player) in the regular season. An award that it seems few can win, with the last six NFL regular seasons showing the award shared evenly between three elite quarterbacks.

Who Wins the MVP of the Regular Season?

After my Pro Bettor Series detailing your NFL Futures betting portfolio for the season ahead, it is time to redirect my attention to the player awards available at our top sportsbooks.

Let’s start with the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for the regular season!

Last week we looked at the AFC North with three of the four franchises having the potential to go deep in this year’s Super Bowl. Interestingly, one of the franchises, the Baltimore Ravens, has a player who has won this award twice in the last four seasons, their star quarterback Lamar Jackson.

We must go back to 2006 for the last time a non-quarterback won the award, and that potentially reduces the field further. The last six seasons have seen the award shared between three quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Jackson.

The Likely Candidates

The Baltimore Ravens are +1000 to win the Super Bowl, yet their quarterback Lamar Jackson is +2200 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) to win the MVP for a third time in five years.

There are reasons to believe he has a lesser chance with Todd Monken as the offensive co-ordinator, which could equate to Jackson not hitting the red zone as much. The Ravens have also lost several of their squad in the off-season, many of which played many of the snaps in last year’s campaign.

But, when you consider that Patick Mahomes is +550 for the award and the Chiefs are +550 for the Super Bowl, and Jackson is a multiple of four at +2200, whereas the team Super Bowl price is only a multiple of two, we have value for a small play.

I did consider Rodgers’ chances because his price at +2000 is as eye-catching as Jackson’s, but as I mentioned when previewing the AFC East, Aaron Rodgers has it all to prove and age is not on his side like Jackson.

Coach-QB Relationships

Overall, the head coach at the Baltimore Ravens, John Harbaugh has built up a strong copacetic relationship with his quarterback in recent seasons, and like Jackson, he is a master of his craft.

The other two strong head coach/quarterback relationships of this recent era, Belichick /Brady and Reed/Mahomes have been pivotal on most recent seasons of the NFL, so Lamar Jackson’s price for MVP shows a surprising lack of respect that as a pro bettor, I must exploit.

MVP Pick: Lamar Jackson (+2200) at BetOnline

As Well as The Value Pick, Why Not a Saver?

It is prudent to ask ourselves that if we are correct and Lamar Jackson is the value for MVP in 2024/2025, why not have a saver bet on Patrick Mahomes who is perennially in the running under the strong tutelage of his mentor and respected head coach Andy Reed.

We opened the Pro Bettor series with a look at the Super Bowl market and detailed why the Kansas City Chiefs were worth an early play in the market. If that is the case, then we must trust a bet on Mahomes potentially corners the MVP market nicely for us.

MVP Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+550) at BetOnline

Why Not Aaron Rodgers?

If you’re a fan of Aaron Rodgers and trust the forty-year-old to come back as good as ever for the New York Jets after years at the Green Bay Packers, then it is understandable to have a small value play on Rodgers for +2000 at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review to learn more), but for starters, I am happy to stick with the high value and attractive price for Lamar Jackson along with our saver on Patrick Mahomes.

Rodgers also lacks that strong player/coach relationship that Mahomes and Jackson have, so it is an easy pass for now, but would not rule out adding him to the portfolio with a strategy to lock up profit, if the elite quarterback is back to his brilliant best of previous seasons.