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How to Bet on the SAG Awards

by Scott Kacsmar
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Screen Actors Guild Awards Trophy

The 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards, also known as the SAG Awards, are taking place live this Saturday night, February 24, 2024. The event will be streamed on Netflix for the 1st time in its history.

This is the only major award show that focuses on just acting, and there are categories for both films and TV shows (drama and comedy series). The voting block is also the largest around as it includes over 130,000 members of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA).

Not surprisingly, you can bet on the SAG Awards using a top sportsbook like BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more). There are 11 categories available there and given some of the results of other award shows this season, there may be some easy calls to make with chalk picks.

We look at the betting markets for this year’s SAG Awards. Note that you cannot parlay these picks together, and BetOnline looks to be capping the winnings from these bets at $50 each.

Best Actor – Movies

Cillian Murphy (-150 at BetOnline) is the betting favorite to win his first SAG award for his performance as the title role in Oppenheimer about the creator of the atomic bomb.

Murphy faces decent competition from Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers (+150) and Bradley Cooper in Maestro (+450). Cooper put in years of work to perfect playing real-life composer Leonard Bernstein while Giamatti puts in one of his best performances ever as a sympathetic professor in one of the year’s best films.

But Oppenheimer has been cleaning up at the award shows, and Murphy has already won Best Actor for it at the Golden Globe Awards and the BAFTA Awards.

Your betting limits may vary, but a $75 bet on Murphy to win Best Actor would win $50.

Best Actress – Movies

One of the big headlines from the Oscar nominations was that Margot Robbie did not receive one for Barbie. She was nominated for Best Actress at the SAG Awards, but she figures to be a longshot (+800 at BetOnline) as this looks like a 2-woman race between Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Emma Stone (Poor Things).

Someone with “stone” in their name is winning here.

Gladstone is the betting favorite at -240 odds, but you cannot discount Stone at +150 odds. Stone just won the BAFTA Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role in her performance in the twisted take on Frankenstein that is Poor Things. She also won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Movie.

But this is the first time we get to see Gladstone and Stone go head-to-head as Gladstone was not in either race that Stone won. Gladstone has already received the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama for her heartfelt role as an Osage wife in a community where her people are being systemically murdered by someone close to her.

A little more risk on this one as Stone is a fan favorite too and the films are very different in tone, but a $120 wager on Gladstone would win $50 at BetOnline.

Best Supporting Actor – Movies

This seems to be the biggest lock for Oppenheimer with Robert Downey Jr. a heavy favorite (-600 at BetOnline) ahead of Ryan Gosling as Ken in Barbie (+300) and the rest of the field, including legend Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon) is +1400.

Downey Jr. has already won the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for his role as government official Lewis Strauss. It would be a real shock if he didn’t add the SAG to his collection of awards here.

Your limits may vary, but a $300 bet on Downey Jr. would win $50.

Best Supporting Actress – Movies

Speaking of locks, the supporting actor awards in film are very one-sided this year. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has -700 odds at BetOnline to win for her role as a lunch lady and grieving mother in The Holdovers, the latest fantastic dramedy from director Alexander Payne.

She has a big lead in the odds over Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple (+525) and Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer (+600).

A $350 bet on Joy Randolph would win $50 at BetOnline. It is too bad we can’t parlay Downey Jr. and Joy Randolph together as that looks like an easy chalk win in this year’s field.

Best Acting in TV Film or Mini Series

Moving away from the film categories, we are looking at an award for limited series or TV movies.

On the men’s side, there is competition from Jon Hamm in the latest season of Fargo (+450 at BetOnline) and from Matt Bomer in Fellow Travelers (+800).

But this award should be a lock for Steven Yeun, who was excellent in Beef, a limited series that has been cleaning up at these award shows with Yeun already winning an Emmy and Golden Globe for his role.

Our biggest lock yet at -800 odds, a $400 bet on Yeun to win for Beef would win $50.

Likewise, Yeun’s co-star Ali Wong has been winning the same awards for Beef, and she is -700 in this category, outpacing Brie Larson for Lessons in Chemistry (+350) and the rest of the field.

A $350 bet on Wong would win $50, and it should be another night of her and Yeun collecting trophies for Beef, a must-watch show from 2023.


Everyone Loves the Bear

The Bear has been a massive comedy series hit for Hulu since it aired in 2022, and the 2nd season was even better than the 1st. No surprise, The Bear is a heavy favorite for both comedy series categories you can bet on:

  • Best Actress, Comedy – Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (-900 at BetOnline)
  • Best Ensemble Cast, Comedy – The Bear (-800 at BetOnline)

Given how much people like Jeremy Allen White as the lead here too, you can book The Bear to win best ensemble cast too, as Ted Lasso (+500) is a distant 2nd in the odds.

A $450 bet on Ayo Edebiri would win $50 at BetOnline. A $400 bet on The Bear would win $50 at BetOnline.

The Dominance of Succession

There are 3 betting markets involving the best dramas on TV at the SAG Awards, but is there anything that can stop Succession after its unbelievable final season on HBO?

Succession is the overwhelming favorite for all 3 categories:

  • Best Actor, Drama – Kieran Culkin, Succession (-500 at BetOnline)
  • Best Actress, Drama – Sarah Snook, Succession (-600 at BetOnline)
  • Best Ensemble Cast, Drama – Succession (-1200 at BetOnline)

All 3 should have no problem winning as Succession has already been cleaning up at the other award shows this year. Again, your betting limits may vary, but a $250 bet on Kieran Culkin would win $50, a $300 bet on Sarah Snook would win $50, and a $600 bet on the Succession cast would win $50.

That last one sounds steep, but it is the most likely outcome of any award of the night. We didn’t even get into the acting jobs done by the rest of the Roy family this past season.

Succession, you will be missed.

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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