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Oscars 2024 Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks

by Scott Kacsmar
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The 2024 Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024. But with 2023 almost over, many of the heavyweights expected to contend for the major awards have already been released and raved over by critics and moviegoers alike. 

Long, heart-breaking, true stories have dominated the year with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer and Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon expected to be heavily featured.  

If you are interested in learning how to bet on awards shows, then you are in luck as some of the top offshore sportsbooks, such as BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review to learn more), have Oscar betting markets for the major awards, and we have our picks and analysis for each category.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actress

The 10 choices for actress in a supporting role with odds from BetOnline: 

  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (+200) 
  • Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (+300) 
  • Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (+400) 
  • Viola Davis, Air (+700) 
  • Penélope Cruz, Ferrari (+800) 
  • Jodie Foster, Nyad (+800) 
  • Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (+900) 
  • America Ferrera, Barbie (+1000) 
  • Julianne Moore, May December (+1000) 
  • Hong Chau, Showing Up (+1000) 

There are some very strong actresses who are used to leading roles in this category, including Julianne Moore, Jodie Foster, Penélope Cruz, and Viola Davis. 

Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a surprising name to lead the list, but she has been a rising star with appearances in The Lost City (2022) with Sandra Bullock, and she had a main role on HBO’s The Idol this past summer. With The Holdovers, this is an Alexander Payne comedy starring Paul Giamatti, reuniting the two since they last worked on Sideways (2004). 

Payne has a dark and dry sense of humor in his films (Election, About Schmidt, Nebraska). He is a great filmmaker and most of his movies get actors nominated for Oscars, but no one has ever won an acting Oscar in any of Payne’s movies. 

The Oscar for Best Supporting Actress has often gone to someone new to audiences who may never be in this good of a position again to win the award. Think Ariana DeBose in 2022 (West Side Story), Youn Yuh-Jung in 2020 (Minari), and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) in 2013. 

For that reason, Lily Gladstone should get the push for her critically-acclaimed performance as Leonardo DiCaprio’s Native American wife in Killers of the Flower Moon.  

But in looking over the odds, Gladstone also appears as the favorite for Best Actress (see below), so she seems to have been given the lead here. In that case, we think Randolph does edge out Emily Blunt to win her first Oscar and the first acting Oscar in a Payne film. 

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (+200) at BetOnline

Best Supporting Actor

The 10 choices for actor in a supporting role with odds from BetOnline: 

  • Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (+100) 
  • Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (+500) 
  • Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (+500) 
  • John Magaro, Past Lives (+700) 
  • Charles Melton, May December (+800) 
  • Chris Messina, Air (+900) 
  • Ryan Gosling, Barbie (+1000) 
  • Tom Hardy, The Bikeriders (+1000) 
  • Austin Butler, The Bikeriders (+1200) 
  • Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (+1200) 

Another category with some real heavyweights in Tom Hardy, Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe, and Robert De Niro. 

De Niro is 80 years old and turned in arguably his best performance since the 1990s, so he will definitely be a sentimental favorite for this one. You just never know if this will be the last great film and performance of his incredible career. 

But Robert Downey Jr. has been getting rave reviews since Oppenheimer came out in the summer for his portrayal of Admiral Lewis Strauss. With such a heavy favorite in the odds, you have to believe Iron Man has this one locked down as few actors can match his charisma, reputation, and of course his performance in that film. 

Look for Downey Jr. to win his first Oscar after being nominated for Best Actor in Chaplin and Best Supporting Actor in Tropic Thunder

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (+100) at BetOnline 

Best Actress

The 9 choices for Best Actress with odds from BetOnline: 

  • Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (+100) 
  • Emma Stone, Poor Things (+150) 
  • Carrie Mulligan, Maestro (+800) 
  • Fantasia Burrino, The Color Purple (+800) 
  • Annette Benning, Nyad (+800) 
  • Margot Robbie, Barbie (+900) 
  • Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall (+1000) 
  • Greta Lee, Past Lives (+1000) 
  • Cailee Spaney, Priscilla (+1000) 

There are some strong performances here and several newcomers, but out of the 6 awards we are looking at, this is probably the closest to being a 2-person race. 

Assuming Lily Gladstone is indeed getting the Best Actress nod instead of Best Supporting Actress, then she is going to have an advantage over Emma Stone, who reportedly shines in Poor Things.  

But this award loves going to actresses who played in heartbreaking, dramatic films, so something quirky like Poor Things or Barbie is probably not going to sit well in a year with films like Killers of the Flower Moon and Anatomy of a Fall

Stone has already won an Oscar before. Gladstone has acting credits in the past, but her performance in Scorsese’s film has been lauded as the highlight by many as she puts a very human face on the suffering of Native Americans in a story that is otherwise largely told through white actors.  

It is very easy to picture Gladstone accepting this award in March. 

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (+100) at BetOnline

Best Actor

The 9 choices for Best Actor with odds from BetOnline: 

  • Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (-150) 
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (+550) 
  • Bradley Cooper, Maestro (+600) 
  • Colman Domingo, Rustin (+600) 
  • Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (+800) 
  • Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley (+850) 
  • Ryan Gosling, Barbie (+1000) 
  • Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (+1000) 
  • Teo Yoo, Past Lives (+1200) 

This is the only award with a front-runner who is better than even money at this point. Bradley Cooper may have self-sabotaged his campaign by choosing a prosthetic nose that’s too big for Maestro if you remember that controversy. 

This one comes down to Leonard DiCaprio or Cillian Murphy in the 2 films we are going to continue plugging the rest of the way. DiCaprio won a Best Actor Oscar for The Revenant, but he has been passed over many times, including for a role he should have won like The Wolf of Wall Street (2013). 

But this one would not be an upset. Murphy is more than deserving of his first Oscar win for his portrayal of Oppenheimer, the physicist who created the atomic bomb. It would actually be his first Oscar nomination, but what a way to debut at the biggest award show for the Irish actor known for playing The Scarecrow and leader of the Peaky Blinders. 

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (-150) at BetOnline

Best Director

The 10 choices for Best Director with odds from BetOnline: 

  • Greta Gerwig, Barbie (+110) 
  • Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (+150) 
  • Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (+500) 
  • Celine Song, Past Lives (+1000) 
  • Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (+1200)
  • Justin Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (+1400)
  • Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (+1800)
  • Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (+1800)
  • Bradley Cooper, Maestro (+1800) 
  • Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (+2000) 

These odds are kind of confusing in that Yorgos Lanthimos is the director of Poor Things, which you will see below has great odds for Best Picture, yet he did not crack this top 10 list for directors. Curious decision or oversight there. 

In 88 cases where a film won Best Picture and was nominated for Best Director, it claimed both awards 67 times (76.1%), so the voters do like to double up here. 

For that reason, Greta Gerwig is not the best choice this year. She did an incredible job in making Barbie work for a variety of audiences, but in going up against two legends still at the top of their game, it is hard to think a movie about Barbie is still going to ultimately sway enough votes her way.  

Nolan vs. Scorsese

This comes down to Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese. Surprisingly, Nolan has never won an Oscar for Best Director or Best Picture. Several of his films have won technical awards for special effects, editing, sound, and of course Heath Ledger’s supporting performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight. But he came up empty for Inception and Dunkirk for Best Director. 

Despite being nominated 9 times for Best Director, Scorsese has only won once for The Departed (2006). Scorsese is going on 81 years old and has already talked a great deal about his mortality and how he doesn’t have enough time left to tell all the stories he wants. It’s heartbreaking to hear him say those things, and he has delivered one of his finest films with Killers of the Flower Moon

Like De Niro, Scorsese is the sentimental favorite here. But with Scorsese and De Niro already owning Oscars, this may be the time to give Nolan his first. What he did with Oppenheimer, specially creating a nuclear bomb without using CGI, is nothing short of incredible. He also had people flock to theaters to see a 3-hour biopic about science and court hearings. 

Scorsese is a legend, but this is Nolan’s time at the Oscars.  

Best Director: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (+150) at BetOnline

Oppenheimer

Best Picture

Finally, the 12 choices for Best Picture with odds from BetOnline: 

  • Poor Things (+180) 
  • Oppenheimer (+200) 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon (+320) 
  • Past Lives (+800) 
  • Lee (+1200) 
  • Anatomy of a Fall (+1400) 
  • Maestro (+1600) 
  • Barbie (+1600) 
  • Dune: Part 2 (+1800) 
  • The Color Purple (+1800) 
  • The Killer (+2000) 
  • Blitz (+2000) 

Some of these films have not been released yet, and something like Dune: Part 2 was delayed until March 2024, so that’s going to be too late for the cut this year. The Color Purple remake is unlikely to leapfrog Barbie, let alone the better choices at the top. The Killer is David Fincher’s highly anticipated new film, but early reviews indicate it just misses the mark of a classic.  

Past Lives was a very good debut from director Celine Song, but this is going to come down to the top 3 films. 

Poor Things is the latest film from director Yorgos Lanthimos, who has a wild sense of humor if you’ve ever seen him films The Lobster, Dogtooth, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, or The Favourite. This collaboration with lead actress Emma Stone is considered his best work yet, but he may be too off-beat to pull away from the devastating true stories handled by the legendary directors on this list. 

Like we said above, over 75% of the Best Picture winners also won Best Director. We already gave Best Director to Nolan, Best Actor to Murphy, and it is only logical that Oppenheimer would also win Best Picture too. 

Best Picture: Oppenheimer (+200) at BetOnline

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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