Table of Contents
What Is A Primary?The basic difference between a primary and a caucus is the voting. A primary is like a sub-election, where delegates vote on which candidate they want to represent the party; voting can also happen at a caucus, which it did in Iowa (without using official ballots), but it’s more of a blanket term for the meeting itself. And that meeting does matter. Iowa is one of six states (Maine, Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota and Wyoming are the others) still using the old-school caucus system for both major U.S. parties, with Kentucky Republicans also using a caucus to determine their nominee. Delegates have to attend in person to vote, so these caucuses can get pretty intense as they try to persuade one another to switch sides. New Hampshire will be somewhat more subdued this Tuesday. Primaries started coming into vogue in the 1890s as part of a progressive movement to make the process more open and transparent. New Hampshire’s primary is actually “semi-closed,” allowing voters to switch their preferences on the final day. Fifteen other states are set up like this; 13 (plus Washington, D.C.) hold “closed” primaries where you have to be a pre-registered member of the party in question – no independents allowed. Fourteen states hold “open” primaries where you can vote for anyone regardless of affiliation.
Why Is the New Hampshire Primary so Important?Because it’s the first primary of the election cycle. New Hampshire state law is set up so the primary has to happen either the second Tuesday in March, or one week before anyone else’s primary. This has allowed New Hampshire to go first since 1920, although the Iowa caucuses (starting in 1972 with the Democrats, and 1976 for the Republicans) kind of stole their thunder. This is still a touchstone moment for election watchers. The winners of the New Hampshire primaries don’t always go on to represent their parties in the U.S. presidential election, especially when it comes to the Democratic Party, but they usually do. And the eventual President of the USA is usually someone who won their New Hampshire primary.
Is Donald Trump A Lock?Pretty much. With Ron DeSantis dropping out of the race on Sunday, the Republican New Hampshire primary has boiled down to two “serious” candidates: Donald Trump, and Nikki Haley. Trump is miles ahead in polling, so much so that the politics odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) have the former president as the runaway –10000 favorite as we go to press. Haley is a distant long shot at +2000.
If you’re looking for something less chalky, the Trump odds for vote share at BetOnline have his over/under at 59.5%, with Haley’s total at just 38.5%. But from a betting perspective, you shouldn’t be too worried about the chalk with Trump. He and his people have an iron grip on the Republican Party, and any opposition is likely to be swatted away like mosquitos.
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”– Winston Churchill pic.twitter.com/ECoR8YeiMm — Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) January 21, 2024