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The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024, so we are less than a year away from the big day. But if you have been following the data for the betting trends in this election, then you know a lot can still happen over the next 50 weeks.
We wanted to look at the election data going back to the 2020 election to see the emerging trends that should influence how you bet on this highly contested market that’s had oddsmakers, at the best political betting sites, spinning.
The Initial Favorite After the 2020 Election
After Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, he was not the betting favorite to win a 2nd term in 2024. The favorite for that was his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who opened with odds around +400 in November 2020.
You could say this was the start of the concern over Biden’s age for a 2nd term as he would be 82 years old on Inauguration Day in January 2025. Harris would only be 60 years old, and there is still a yearning among many to see a woman take the position of president for the first time in America.
But Harris does have a popularity issue, so by late December 2020, Biden was already back on top as the odds-on favorite to win reelection at +400.
Meanwhile, after losing the 2020 election, GOP candidate and former president Donald Trump was 3rd in the odds at +650.
The Impact of January 6th, 2021
Trump’s odds would take a big hit after the events that unfolded on January 6, 2021, when Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol building on a chaotic, dark day for the country.
Trump and his supporters alleged that the election was stolen, and he wanted Mike Pence, his Vice President, to not certify the votes of the 2020 election. Pence, who heard calls by Trump’s supporters for him to be hung that day, did not obey and the votes were certified.
Trump’s actions on January 6 led to an unprecedented 2nd impeachment of him as he was still technically president for a few more days. With this ugly situation unfolding, Trump’s odds for 2024 shot up to +1600 and he even fell behind other Republicans such as Pence (+1200) and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (+1333).
But after Trump was not impeached by the Senate, his odds improved to +900 with the knowledge that running for a 2nd term was still feasible. After hinting at CPAC that he would run again in 2024, Trump’s odds shot up to +680 as March began.
But there would be other names entering the race for the Republican party.
The Rise (And Fall) of Ron DeSantis
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis quickly emerged as a top candidate to replace Trump as the new leader of the GOP for 2024. He is much younger, he won big in Florida where he is liked, and he has a similar brashness to his approach while perhaps exhibiting more intelligence than Trump in his old age.
DeSantis started to climb in the odds for 2024 from +2500 to +1800 to +1200 by May 2021. By August 2021, DeSantis was +950, the first time he was under +1000. But he still trailed Biden (+375), Harris (+400), and Trump (+575).
A year after the 2020 election, Trump regained his betting favorite status for the 2024 election. He was up to +235 at one point, but by the summer of 2022, the push for DeSantis was gaining steam.
In July 2022, DeSantis (+300) pulled ahead of Trump (+333) by a slim margin, but both were looking better in the odds than Biden (+525).
With mounting legal problems for Trump, in January 2023, DeSantis (+200) became the outright favorite to become the 47th president in 2024. But he did not build on his momentum, and most polls still showed that Republic voters preferred Trump again. DeSantis was always careful to not attack Trump directly in the media while Trump was already working on nicknames to put down “Meatball Ron” as he sensed his challenger was making his mark.
But by the spring, DeSantis was already fading, Biden (+195) was back on top, and Trump even saw a bump after his New York indictment, reclaiming his lead in the Republican party.
DeSantis had a chance to impress voters in the Republican debates that Trump did not attend, but he fell flat in those too, losing even more ground to Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
At BetOnline (BetOnline Review), DeSantis is now only +1000 to be the Republic nominee, trailing Trump (-800) and Haley (+600). With other oddsmakers putting DeSantis (+3100) behind someone like independent Robert Kennedy Jr. (+2700) to win in 2024, it looks very unlikely that DeSantis is going to be on the ballot next November.
A Year Out
Despite their ages and bad approval ratings, it still looks like 2024 will come down to Biden and Trump. They have -250 odds at BetOnline to be the candidate for their parties in 2024.
Biden’s approval rating his fallen under 40%, which is bad, and he is currently trailing Trump in the odds to win in 2024. Some books has Trump at +137 and Biden at +200. Other oddsmakers have Trump at +166 and Biden at +240.
There has been a recent push for California Governor Gavin Newsom (+1100) to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024. But no incumbent has ever lost a primary to another challenge in modern U.S. history.
Even though Trump is facing 91 charges over 4 indictments, his popularity has not declined and his odds have not faltered as we near the end of 2023. Trump takes a mugshot and sees his campaign funding flourish. That is the state of politics these days.
But with Trump working his way back from +1600 odds to being a favorite for much of the last year and then some, the data is trending favorably to the Republicans winning in 2024 over Biden and the Democrats. BetOnline has Biden not winning a 2nd term at -250 odds, which is an implied probability of 71.4%.
A lot can still happen, but the data is pointing in Trump’s favor going into 2024. However, the odds of the Democratic party winning in 2024 is -110 compared to -105 for Republicans, so this is still being viewed as a coin flip with no guarantee that it will be Trump vs. Biden come next November.