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Around the World: The Year of Election(s)

by Jason Lake
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Justin Trudeau

The results are in, and the election has already been a huge disappointment for the far right. I’m talking about France, of course; the National Rally and their allies were supposed to win Sunday’s second round of voting for France’s parliament, the National Assembly, but they finished third instead. 

Less surprising were the results in the United Kingdom, where Keir Starmer and the Labour Party claimed a huge majority after PM Rishi Sunak and the reigning Conservatives had their votes split by Nigel Farage and the Reform Party. As predicted, it was like Canada’s 1993 election all over again, although the Tories did escape with more than two seats this time.

These results have plenty to tell us about the 2024 U.S. presidential election. But there’s more where that came from; The Year of Elections will see over four billion people in 76 countries vote for a new leader – and even more in 2025. Here’s a taste of what you’ll find on the politics odds board at our top politics betting sites as we go to press.

Canada: 45th Federal Election

The Great White North has been under the control of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party since 2015. However, Trudeau is in much the same canoe that his father Pierre found himself in back in 1979: People are just tired of him.

If history repeats itself, Canada’s Conservatives will be back in power next year – or sooner, if the Liberals call a snap election. In 1979, Joe Clark and the Tories won a minority government to end 16 years of Trudeau rule; in 2025, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are -500 favorites (excuse me, favourites) to reclaim Parliament, with Trudeau fils and the Liberals at +310 at Bovada.

Beware drawing a direct line between 1979 and 2025. This is not the same Tory party; after they lost in 1993, the nascent Reform Party took over the right wing, and eventually absorbed the old Progressive Conservatives to form a new and much more populist group.

The younger Trudeau could also try to replicate what happened in France by forming a “front” with the New Democratic Party (+3000), the Green Party (+10000) and anyone else from Canada’s center-left. Excuse me, centre-left. The Liberals and New Democrats are already working together to shore up Trudeau’s minority government; if they’re serious about stopping Poilievre, who’s running one of the most caustic populist platforms in Canadian history, they’ll do what it takes to win. But how serious are they?

Ireland: Presidential Election Winner

Meanwhile, across the pond, Ireland’s last presidential election was in 2018, so they’re due for another by March 2025. This is for the lower house of the Irish government; the upper house is controlled by a coalition of parties including Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

The current chairperson of the lower house, as of 2020, is Sean O Fearghail of Fianna Fail. This party and Fine Gael are both considered center-right; they’ve been Ireland’s 1-2 punch since 1933, although Fianna Fail lost influence during the 2011 election, where they finished in third place.

Something’s bound to change in 2025. This unprecedented coalition – at least for Ireland – is getting battered from all sides, as voters express their concerns over housing prices, migration and the rising cost of living. Sounds familiar.

We got something of a sneak preview last month during elections for local positions and for the European Parliament. It was a good showing overall for Fianna Fail, and to some extent for Fine Gael; Sinn Fein, the leading opposition party, is licking its wounds after pulling in just 12% of the popular vote.

Which brings us to the politics odds at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more):

  • Mairead McGuinness (Fine Gael) +500
  • Fergus Finlay +800
  • Bertie Ahern (Fianna Fail) +1200

Finlay is a person of interest here, a former senior member of the Irish Labour Party who is known more these days for his backroom wheeling and dealing. But it will be hard to beat McGuinness in this election; she’s a leading figure in the European Parliament, and about as media-savvy as they come. Bet accordingly.

author avatar
Jason Lake
Jason has been writing about sports betting since 2002. He earned his B.A. in Pacific and Asian Studies from the University of Victoria back in 1997. He has a passion for all things sports betting.

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