Home Politics Betting Strategies for the 2024 Presidential Election: How to Maximize Your Chances of Winning

Betting Strategies for the 2024 Presidential Election: How to Maximize Your Chances of Winning

by Scott Kacsmar
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Presidential Candidates

With the 2024 United States presidential election just under a year away, there figures to be some wild swings in the odds leading up to November 5, 2024. The odds at the top political betting sites have already been jumping since the last election, and we still do not know for a fact if it will be a rematch of Democrat and incumbent president Joe Biden and former GOP president Donald Trump.

Betting on the election’s outcome has become a popular market, and you can find odds at a variety of sportsbooks that offer political and non-sporting markets. You could end up finding great value in this particular election because of its uncertainty.

We wanted to share some betting strategies for the 2024 presidential election that should help you maximize your chances of winning.

Hide the Heart from the Head

The first step when betting on this election is to be as objective as possible. Politics can often get people fired up, perhaps even more than sports these days. Just like how we have to be objective in betting on our favorite sports teams, we have to do the same with political parties.

While you may personally hate Donald J. Trump and wish nothing more than to see him lose again, you have to understand what the data says and remember that over 74 million people voted for him in 2020, a record number in the popular vote for the losing candidate in a presidential election.

Many of those people would vote for him again in 2024, and he’ll probably gain some new voters who have turned 18 since the last election. You can’t let your personal opinion dictate your bets or you will likely be disappointed.

Remember, presidential elections are almost always very close these days. No one has surpassed 380 electoral college votes (270 are needed to win) since George H. Bush had 426 in 1988.

It will be close again no matter who the candidates ultimately end up being, and that is why you should not put all your eggs in one basket on your favorite team. Stay objective.

Electoral College 2020 U.S. Election

Electoral College votes 2020 U.S. election

Hedge, Hedge, and Hedge Again

Ideally, you would have already placed a bet on Trump to win when he was +600 or longer, and you would have also snatched Biden at +400 or longer, which would almost guarantee you a solid profit.

We say almost because it is still not a guarantee that 2024 is Trump vs. Biden, but some oddsmakers like BetOnline have odds of -250 that it will in fact be that rematch.

But it is a great idea to make sure you have some bets on both candidates as this can swing dramatically. We have seen Trump fall behind Ron DeSantis in the odds, and we have seen Biden trail his Vice President Kamala Haris at one point.

Shopping around for the best odds is always a good betting strategy. Even in November 2023, you could find Trump at +300 at one sportsbook and Biden at +200 at another even though many have Trump slightly ahead of Biden.

Finding those books that disagree and have vastly different lines will be your key to hedging. This is why you should have accounts with multiple oddsmakers to diversify your bets on the same market.

donald trump barak obama joe biden

Timing is Everything

Even if you don’t hedge now, hedging during election week when the votes are being counted can also be crucial in getting great value. In the 2020 election, there was a big difference in how people voted in person on Election Day compared to mail-in ballots during the pandemic.

The in-person voters were largely Republican, and the mail-in ballots were largely for Biden. This led to Trump having a considerable lead early in the vote-counting process, and some operators made poor adjustments to the live odds that some bettors could have taken advantage of. I can recall Trump being -600 at one point to win, and we know that ultimately was a losing bet.

So, the moral of the story is to hedge and have bets on both candidates, and you will have to price shop and keep up with the swings to take advantage of the best lines for both in what is always a fluid situation.

gavin newsom joe biden

Sprinkle Some Bets on Longshots

Let’s address the elephant in the room. Joe Biden will be 82 if he wins another term, and we have already seen him stumble and fall in public multiple times. Donald Trump would be more than halfway to his 79th birthday on Inauguration Day in January 2025. This is an incredibly stressful job, the man lives on Diet Coke and KFC, and Trump is also facing 91 charges over 4 indictments.

There is a chance one of these candidates could pass away before the election even happens. This is usually not a concern in the election, because we usually do not have candidates this old.

For this reason alone, it would be wise to consider hedging on some longshots that are feasible alternatives in case Biden or Trump (or both) cannot run in 2024.

CandidateBetOnlineBovada
Joe Biden-300-210
Michelle Obama+500+550
Gavin Newsome+800+700
Kamala Harris+800+1200
Dean Phillips+8000+5000

For a Democrat, California Governor Gavin Newsom has been climbing the odds and could be a younger replacement for Biden. You can find him with odds in the +1000 to +1500 range right now.

For a Republican, Nikki Haley did a good job in the GOP debates and in presenting herself as something different from Trump. Republicans might see supporting a woman as a way to gain independent voters and take some of the heat off for their abortion stand. Haley faces a stiffer challenge in toppling Trump, who has such a grip on the party, but you can find her with odds in the +2000 to +4000 range right now.

U.S. House Senate session

Consider Alternative Markets

Just like how sports bettors are offered many different markets today, election bettors do not have to be limited to only betting on who will win the election. If you don’t feel good about Trump or Biden winning the general election in 2024, you could always just bet on them to win the nomination for their party, which they have near-lock odds to do so.

Biden is only -250 to win the Democratic nomination, but that could be a steal when you consider the incumbent always gets it without a serious challenger from their party. But Trump is more like -800 to win the Republican nomination, which will be hard to top.

CandidateBovadaBetOnline
Donald Trump-1200-5000
Nikki Haley+1200+1200
Ron DeSantis+8000+12,500
Tucker Carlson+12,500+12,500
Ivanka Trump+20,000+30,000

You also could bet on which party will win the election since we know it is a binary choice between Democratic (-110) and Republican (-110). That one is not going to offer as many great hedging opportunities as individual candidates will, but if you want to somehow ignore the messy situation of Biden vs. Trump, then betting only on the party may be the way to go.

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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