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It appears that, unless age, health or legal trouble intervene in a major way, we are headed for a rematch of the 2020 presidential election in 2024. Joe Biden is running again as an incumbent and is basically unopposed, while Donald Trump has built a huge lead on the field of Republican candidates, and nothing, from indictments to debates, has eroded it so far.
That means that the more interesting market for political bettors may be the two vice-presidential races, because, while the top slot on each ticket seems to be all but settled, the number two role is anything but.
Sure enough, the best political betting sites such as Bovada (Visit our Bovada Review to learn more) or Bookmaker (Visit our Bookmaker Review to learn more) have odds available to place wagers on this market.
Joe Biden’s Running Mate
The Democratic ticket has more certainty than the Republican one. Biden and Kamla Harris were a winning team in 2020, and their fates have been entwined throughout the first two-plus years of the administration. Both President Biden and VP Harris have seen their favorability ratings plummet and face significant favorability gaps in polls that seem unlikely to turn around by election day.
With concerns over Biden’s age and health hovering around his campaign, sticking with an unpopular vice-presidential pick may seem like a bad idea. A burst of articles and commentaries speculating on better VP candidates came out in September, perhaps the result of a trial balloon that the Biden campaign quietly floated on the prospect of replacing Harris in 2024.
That balloon appears to have popped, however. As quickly as the speculation came out a month ago, it quieted just as fast, and Harris appears to be taking on an expanded role as her youth and ability to appeal to younger voters may prove valuable in the campaign. A Financial Times article this month outlined how her recent appearances seemed to be the start of a “relaunch” to improve her visibility and popularity.
Not surprisingly, Harris is the favorite in Democratic VP betting odds, but she appears to still be a value at -275, as the betting odds seem to still reflect the September crisis of confidence in her future.
Donald Trump’s Running Mate
The Republican vice-presidential race appears to be wide open, as no one is quite sure what Trump will do—which is on brand for the former president.
Trump has certainly made his share of enemies during his first term as president and his actions since losing the 2020 election. The large field of Republican candidates appeared to be a race for second place when Trump jumped out to a lead in the polls, and the winner of the Trump-less primary debates seemed to be destined to be the likely top choice for Veep.
|Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The candidates have looked anything but presidential in their debates, however, and many may have damaged their chances of using the campaign as an audition for Trump’s VP. That may be why Robert F. Kennedy Jr., originally a Democratic candidate and more recently launching a presidential campaign as an independent, is the leading choice on VP betting odds at +400 at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review).
Trump values loyalty and fealty above all else, however, and the strong-willed Kennedy seems an unlikely choice to bend to Trump’s will or remain quiet and supportive of the candidate.
Nikki Haley, who emerged from the first two Republican debates as the one adult in the room, is next on the list at +525. Trump picked her for his ambassador to the UN, and she made it through his presidential term without a major falling out. She’s been critical of him during her campaign, however, which could sour him on her as a running mate.
Trump is believed to be strongly considering a female VP and South Dakota governor Kristi Noem was one of the first to endorse him. Arizona’s Kari Lake and New York’s Elise Stefanik have also been mentioned as possibilities. Stefanik leads that group at +700. Noem is at +800 and Lake at +1200.
Tim Scott was a strong possibility heading into the Republican campaigns, but his run has been a letdown to many observers, and he’s currently sporting +800 odds. Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman running a Republican presidential campaign, has played the role of a Trump surrogate, stirring things up at the debates. As a result, he’s the third most likely pick at +600.
We’ll take Harris at -275 at BetOnline. It won’t make anyone rich, but it’s a good value pick.
On the GOP side, we’ll go with Noem at +800 at BetOnline. A female running mate will help with a major group that Trump polls poorly with, and her status as an incumbent governor adds prestige to a campaign that needs it.