Will 2024 Be One of the Closest Presidential Elections in US History? 

The 2024 US presidential election is just a month away on November 5, and early voting is already taking place as voters choose between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump.

The debates are likely over for the year after the vice president candidates, Tim Walz and JD Vance, had their debate Tuesday night, which had no real movement on the betting odds for this election as they were very civil and agreed with each other often.

A month out, 2024 looks like it will be super tight and likely come down to a state like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin in the race to 270 electoral votes. As always, the few swing states are the ones that will determine the winner.

Currently, a political betting site like BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) is giving both Trump and Harris -110 odds to win the election, and you can find similar odds at other bookmakers. Election Betting Odds has Harris with a 50.1% chance to win compared to 48.9% for Trump.

One of the only sources that gives Harris a higher chance is the FiveThirtyEight projection model, which uses a lot of polling data. Harris wins 58 times out of 100 there. But 2024 is shaping up to be one of the closest elections ever from a betting odds perspective. Does that necessarily mean the electoral college outcome will be close too?

We look back at the closest elections ever, their electoral outcomes, and what kind of numbers are projected for the 2024 election between Harris and Trump.

The 7 Closest Elections Ever by Betting Odds

Using historical US presidential election odds from Sports Odds History that date back to 1872, we have identified the 7 closest elections where neither candidate had better than -120 odds to win, which is what should likely happen in 2024. Only 3 elections (1880, 1952, and 1980) had even final betting odds among the candidates, which could also happen this year too.

The 7 closest elections by betting odds are listed below in chronological order. We have noted the party in each race in parenthesis, their betting odds and the electoral college vote with the margin of victory.

It has been quite some time since there was an election this close in the betting odds as the last was in 1980 between Jimmy Carter, who just turned 100 years old this week, and Ronald Reagan.

But that election also proved that close betting odds can still lead to a blowout win as Reagan crushed the incumbent Carter by 440 electoral votes. That’s the only time since the late 1800s that an incumbent Democrat lost. Kamala Harris is technically not an incumbent since she was only Joe Biden’s Vice President, but she is largely tied to the Biden administration for obvious reasons.

However, the first election in this list is also the closest one ever as Rutherford Hayes edged out Samuel Tilden 185-184 in 1876, one of the most controversial elections ever.

Overall, here is the breakdown of margin of victory in the electoral college based on the betting odds of the winner going back to 1872:

• Heavy favorite (better than -300 odds): Average margin of victory was 304.6 electoral votes in 17 elections.
• Solid favorite (odds between -150 and -300): Average margin of victory was 160.1 electoral votes in 10 elections.
• Close election (odds between -120 and +120): Average margin of victory was 142.4 electoral votes in 7 elections.
• Upset win (odds better than +120): Average margin of victory was 73.0 electoral votes in 4 elections.

From this, close elections still produce similar electoral vote outcomes as elections where a solid favorite wins.

What Are the Most Likely Electoral College Outcomes in 2024?

In the race for 270 electoral votes, it figures to be close this year. For reference, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of 304-234 (+70). Trump then lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 306-232 (+74).

Most projections see something closer than both of those in 2024. Interestingly enough, that would be three elections in a row where the margin of victory was under 75 votes. You have to go back to the 1800s to find the last time there were more than 2 straight elections not won by at least 125 votes, and there were fewer electoral votes back then. It has never happened 3 elections in a row since the electoral vote count exceeded 450 starting in 1900. The total did not exceed 500 until the 1912 election.

So, we are living in a time where these elections are much closer and come down to swing states. There are 7 identified swing states for 2024, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

According to odds at BetOnline, Republicans are favored to win:

• Arizona (-215)
• Georgia (-225)
• North Carolina (-165)

Democrats are favored to win:

• Michigan (-200)
• Nevada (-130)
• Pennsylvania (-130)
• Wisconsin (-150)

If those numbers held up, Harris would defeat Trump 276-262, the 3rd-closest election since 1872. The only other recent election to be within 20 electoral votes was 2000 when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore 271-267 (+4) after a highly controversial finish in Florida.

If Trump won Nevada instead of Harris, she would still win 270-268, the 2nd-closest election since 1872. This would be thanks to the “Blue Wall” holding in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Trump won Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, he would defeat Harris 281-257. This is why that is such a huge state in this election. It is worth more electoral votes than Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10) combined.

These candidates should have to go 5-2 or better in swing states to get to 300 electoral votes this time. Betting and polling data has not been 100% accurate in the past. But with a month to go, barring any huge surprises, it would be a shock if 2024 is not one of the closest elections in history.