Home Politics Donald Trump & the Historic Hush Money Trial – How It Could Impact the 2024 Election

Donald Trump & the Historic Hush Money Trial – How It Could Impact the 2024 Election

by Scott Kacsmar
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Donald Trump Trial

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s historic hush money trial involving an alleged payoff to porn star Stormy Daniels took things to a new level after Daniels testified in court on Tuesday.

The criminal trial, the 1st of its kind for a former U.S. president, is close to wrapping up a 2nd week of testimony. So far, Trump has been ridiculed for repeatedly falling asleep at trial. However, without TV cameras allowed inside the New York courtroom, we just have a ton of daily courtroom sketch artist renderings of him to go by:

We also cannot confirm or deny the rumors of Trump passing gas. But one thing is clear: Judge Juan Manuel Merchan has told Trump to cut the crap when it comes to outbursts in court or speaking negatively in public of anyone involved in the trial. On April 30, 2024, Trump became the 1st U.S. president to ever be held in criminal contempt of court.

Expecting Trump to honor a gag order may be a pipe dream, but there is no denying this case is wearing on him as he would rather be out campaigning for the November election.

Before heading into the political betting sites, let’s take a look at the latest updates on the historic hush money trial and where Trump’s odds are for the election.

The Reason for the Hush Money Trial

Just a quick refresher on why this trial in New York is happening.

Trump is facing 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records for payments to former adult film star Stormy Daniels, who Trump allegedly had an affair with in 2006. He then tried to pay to keep her quiet and not go public about it shortly before the 2016 presidential election in an effort to improve his election chances.

It is up to the prosecution to make the case that Trump’s campaign falsified these records of payments in order to commit or conceal other crimes, including a violation of federal campaign finance limits, an unlawful influence on the 2016 election and tax fraud. That is why these are felonies and this is a criminal trial.

A singular $130,000 payment to Daniels to stay quiet about an affair would not by itself spark a case of this magnitude and seriousness. If Trump is convicted on 5 or more counts, he can face up to 20 years in prison.

It is also not just a matter of Stormy Daniels, as Trump’s party is accused of paying off former Playboy model Karen McDougal (whom Trump also had an affair with) to stay quiet in the same fashion as Daniels was paid to do.

Trump’s Guilt Is Hard To Deny

Former Trump attorney and fixer Michael Cohen has already served 3 years in federal prison over these payments, so making the case that Trump was aware and in support of these activities should not be the toughest case to make.

However, this is why we have trials and due process. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

However, according to the odds at a top-rated sportsbook like Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more), it is more than likely that Trump will be found guilty on at least 1 count. On the question of whether Trump will be found guilty on at least 1 felony count in this trial, “Yes” is leading with -275 odds, which is an implied 73.3% chance of happening.

We’ll take that bet.

  • Pick: Will Donald Trump Be Found Guilty of One or More Felonies in New York? – Yes (-275) at Bovada

You can also still bet on Trump not taking a plea deal in his cases, which if you know anything about his history, you know he will not take a plea. That’s still a good one even if the odds are not very valuable.

  • Pick: To Cut a Plea Deal with State/Federal Prosecutors – No (-1500) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more)

Stormy Testifies

On May 7, 2024, Stormy Daniels testified for 5 hours at the trial. She went into great detail about the lone sexual encounter between her and Trump in July 2006, including some very long answers that were as descriptive as noting the sexual positions they used, and that Trump did not wear a condom. Things she didn’t necessarily need to bring up at this particular trial, but she seemed interested in humiliating Trump.

If you think Trump would never sit through 5 hours of that without an outburst, you would be correct.

Trump audibly cursed and was shaking his head throughout the testimony. It was just a day earlier when Judge Merchan held Trump in contempt of court for the 10th time already. This has some believing that Trump should go to jail for this many offenses in court.

Daniels is not done testifying either. She will resume her testimony on May 9. We’ll see if Trump can control himself better, but based on the way things are going, that is unlikely.

What’s the Impact on the 2024 Election?

The best news for Trump is his other trials keep getting delayed and will not have any resolution before November’s election. The other good news for him is that Joe Biden is not making any headway with voters.

The youth vote, which he badly needs in November, is falling apart with the protests against Israel being at odds with Biden’s support for the country. That doesn’t mean the kids are going to vote for Trump, but not voting at all is a win for Trump and his base, which will definitely show up at the polls.

Even with the trial not going great for Trump, he is not the underdog in this election:

  • At BetOnline, Trump and Biden remain tied with -105 odds to win the election.
  • At Election Betting Odds, Trump has shot up to 46.1% to win from 43.5% just a few weeks ago. This is the Israel-Palestine conflict at work for dropping Biden.
  • At Bovada, Trump is +100 to win the election while Biden is +115.

The reality is Trump could spend a day in jail for contempt of court and he wouldn’t lose any ground in this race.  However, there are still weeks to go in this trial. Trump will have his vice president pick to announce soon and we’ll see if he can grow his lead on Biden this summer.

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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