Is North Carolina the 7th Swing State in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

We keep hearing about the importance of the 6 swing states in the 2024 US presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

A key factor of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory was his ability to turn Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to red states for the Republican party. Then the key to Joe Biden’s 2020 win was turning those 3 states back to blue for the Democrats, and Biden also was able to swing Arizona and Georgia.

In the 5 elections since 2004, there have been no more than 6 states to swing the other way from the previous election. The highest in that time was 9 swing states in 2008, an election where Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain. Both were first-time nominees for President of the United States.

There’s more history with Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, but we just mentioned there were 5 swing states in 2020, and the 2016 election with Trump’s win saw 6 swing states. That’s the range (5 or 6) of swing states we’ve been expecting in elections involving Trump since 2016.

But what if 2024 has a 7th swing state in North Carolina? Let’s examine the history and current numbers in the Tar Heel State as we prepare to place our bets at the top politics betting sites.

North Carolina’s US Presidential Election History

The state of North Carolina is certainly part of the US South, but it’s not the “Deep South” as some like to call that region. Still, it has traditionally been a Republican-voting state.

In the 1968, American Independent candidate George Wallace received 31.3% of the vote in North Carolina despite running a very controversial campaign rooted in discrimination as the country was going through a difficult year with protests and assassinations. He lost to Richard Nixon, the Republican who received 39.5% of the state’s vote and won the election.

But in 1976, 55.3% of voters in North Carolina voted for Democrat Jimmy Carter, who won the election over Republican incumbent Gerald Ford. However, Carter failed on his reelection bid in 1980 when 49.3% of North Carolina voters went with Republican Ronald Reagan instead.

Despite a 1992 election between Democratic winner Bill Clinton and incumbent Republican George H.W. Bush that produced a modern record 22 swing states, North Carolina still stuck with the Republican party. Bush received 43.44% of the vote to 42.65% for Clinton in a tight one.

Shifting Trends

It wasn’t until 2008 that Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina since Carter in 1976. It was also an extremely close result with Obama receiving 49.7% of the vote, and John McCain was right there with 49.38%. Fewer than 14,000 votes separated the two candidates.

Given how close 2008 was and the usual voting pattern in North Carolina, it’s not that surprising that Republican Mitt Romney was able to swing the state red in 2012. Romney received 50.4% of the vote to 48.4% for Obama, who still won another term anyway. Also, North Carolina was the smallest margin of victory for the Republicans in 2012.

In 2016, North Carolina Republicans helped Donald Trump win with 49.8% of the vote compared to 46.2% for Hillary Clinton. But things were much tighter in 2020 with Trump getting 49.93% of the vote, a very marginal increase, while Biden did much better than Clinton with 48.59%.

In 2020, North Carolina was Trump’s smallest margin of victory in any state he won, and it was the only state he won with less than 50% of the vote.

Are these diminishing returns for Republicans and gains in North Carolina by the Democrats a troubling sign that 2024 is truly up for grabs?

North Carolina’s 2024 Election Data

We know Trump hasn’t hit 50% in North Carolina in the previous 2 elections. On Super Tuesday in March of this year, Trump defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley with 73.8% of the vote. However, the 23.3% for Haley was above average compared to what she received in other Republican primaries across the country.

The 2024 election has obviously shifted in the last few weeks with Vice President Kamala Harris replacing incumbent Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. Recent polls are leaning towards Trump but it is no longer a clean sweep:

• According to a YouGov poll from August 5-9 that includes third-party candidates too, Trump and Harris are at a virtual tie with 46% of the vote each.
• The Cook Political Report poll from July 26 – August 8 that only includes Trump vs. Harris gives Harris the current edge with 48% to 47% for Trump.
• The Trafalgar Group poll from August 6-8 favors Trump (49%) over Harris (45%) in a 2-way race.

According to Election Betting Odds, the Republicans have a 61.5% chance of winning North Carolina this year. But given that most of the other red states have over a 95% chance of being won by Republicans, 61.5% makes North Carolina one of the most vulnerable states on the map in this election.

Let’s keep in mind that North Carolina is worth 16 electoral votes. So, even if Harris was unable to win Nevada (6 votes) and Arizona (11 votes), an upset in North Carolina would almost cancel out losing both of those states where things look tight for Democrats right now.

Will North Carolina Democrats Show Up Big in November?

Adding intrigue to the election in North Carolina is that the Governor seat is open as incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper is on a term limit and can not run for another term. That means it will come down to Democrat Josh Stein vs. Republican Mark Robinson. The latter has been endorsed by Trump.

But if you look at the polling data, Stein and the Democrats are favored to win this seat. At BetOnline, the Democrats have -600 odds (implied chance of 85.7%) to win the Governorship.

So, if people come out in good numbers to vote against the Trump-backed Republican for Governor, then what’s stopping them from also voting against Trump in the general election? This is the fear Republicans are also facing in Arizona with Kari Lake being a controversial, Trump-backed candidate for Senate.

If the Democrats can win the Governor seat with ease in North Carolina, then they just may help Harris become the 3rd Democrat to win the state in the general election since 1976.

It should again be one of the closest races in the country.