Home Politics Why Have Joe Biden’s Odds Improved in the Last Month?

Why Have Joe Biden’s Odds Improved in the Last Month?

by Scott Kacsmar
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Joe Bidens Odds Improved

With November’s U.S. presidential election now under 7 months away, incumbent Joe Biden continues to see his odds of reelection surge against challenger and former president Donald Trump.

Not even 2 full months ago, Biden had odds of +235 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) to beat Trump (-110) in November. Today, things are even with -105 odds for both at BetOnline, a top-rated sportsbook.

Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more) is a little more optimistic for Trump with -110 odds to +130 for Biden, but even that has changed from a few weeks ago when Biden was +150.

This continues the downward trend for Trump and the ascension of Biden. According to Election Betting Odds, Biden now has a 45.0% chance of winning in November compared to 44.4% for Trump. Remember, Biden was all the way down at 32.6% in early March.

Why have Biden’s odds continued to improve like this recently? We’ll look at a few factors before heading to the political betting sites.

Biden’s Strong March Performance at the Polls

Biden’s recent surge can be traced to his strong performance in the primaries in March. He had a big Super Tuesday on March 5, and a week later, he locked up enough delegates to secure the nomination for his party.

That outcome all but guaranteed a rematch of Biden vs. Trump, and Biden already won that the first time around in 2020. This was a signal that we can forget about these other candidates challenging him like California Governor Gavin Newsom or former First Lady Michelle Obama. In fact, Obama said she would not be running for president this year.

So, the path is all clear for Biden for a 2nd term even if a high percentage of Americans would prefer a younger, different candidate. But Joe it is. He’s made it into April, which would be unprecedented territory for an incumbent to pull out of reelection.

The latest anyone ever waited in modern history was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 when he announced he wouldn’t run for another term at the end of March that year. Biden is past that point, and the Democrats are going to have to support him collectively if they want to keep up the momentum and win in November.

State of the Union Success

On March 7, 2024, Biden delivered possibly his final State of the Union address. While Republicans have done everything to call him senile and “Sleepy Joe,” Biden was anything but that on the night of the speech. He was lively, combative, spry and addressed all his major talking points in a great speech that impressed most political pundits.

Biden even got a boost after the speech thanks to a ridiculous response from the Republican party when Alabama Senator Katie Britt delivered a whispery, bizarre speech that felt like an audition for a remake of Serial Mom.

Trump’s Lousy Spring

Even if Biden isn’t blowing your socks off, his safe approach is still better than the circus you get with Donald Trump and his legal woes.

The best win Trump’s had recently is that he only had to come up with $175 million for a bond in his civil fraud case after his lawyers argued it was impossible to secure the more than $450 million he originally had to pay on his judgment from lying about the size of his wealth.

Oh, his 91 criminal charges have decreased to 88 after 3 charges were dropped, so that’s a win too. But overall, his legal problems are still a major strain on his campaign, and that is why we see him selling $400 gold sneakers and $60 “God Bless the USA” bibles with his name on them.

Even when Trump thought he landed a $5 billion windfall from his social media company Truth Social after it went public for trade, that blew up in his face quickly when it was discovered the site had fewer than 500,000 active users and lost over $58 million in 2023 with just $4 million in revenue. It essentially became a meme stock with Trump supporters driving up the price before it lost over 20% in value just a day after the financial information was leaked.

His social media company isn’t the only place where Trump is seeing low attendance. Trump, always obsessed with crowd size, has not been getting big crowds at his recent rallies either:

Trump’s rambling at these events has also gotten him into more hot water as he recently referred to there being a “bloodbath” if he doesn’t win in November. He tried to clarify that he was talking about a bad outcome in the automobile industry rather than political violence, but the optics were not good for someone who was the ringleader on January 6, 2021, at the Capitol.

Still, just last week, Trump brought back the “bloodbath” term to describe Biden’s border policy. Trump has also referred to immigrants as “animals” recently, as he amps up the immigration rhetoric to use against Biden and the Democrats.

The Republicans have a real sore spot with abortion after the right to choose was overturned by the Supreme Court, so Trump and his campaign are seeing the southern border as the best way to attack Biden. However, it hasn’t been a successful strategy so far. Trump is going to need to nail his upcoming vice president pick to get a boost from the base.

Biden: Steady Does It

Plenty can still happen between now and November, but the reality is there is a ceiling to Biden’s recent surge. The U.S. elections are too close to call these days for any candidate of a major party to have a significant edge in the odds to win in November. It will be close again.

In this case, people likely have just been tired of facing the inevitable rematch of Biden vs. Trump for what has felt like years in the making. It is hard to get amped up for something like that so many months out, but with the election getting closer and closer, you are seeing people start to put their foot down on whether they are still with Trump or firmly against him.

Biden’s strength is not being a likeable candidate or someone voters even want to attempt another 4-year run from. His strength is keeping the economy running, avoiding a recession and making sure the people who reject Trump and the MAGA movement turn out in record numbers to vote against that party in November.

A low turnout is a killer for the Democrats, so they have to keep this campaign slow and steady as another ticket with Biden and Kamala Harris is not going to energize people. Voting against Trump to make him lose is what gets people excited.

Biden just has to avoid any major controversies over the next few months. Make sure those numbers for unemployment, the stock market and job growth are still solid as it is hard to vote out an incumbent when the economy is doing well.

Biden’s approval rating is still a bit south of 40% according to FiveThirtyEight, but he has time to get above that number again. He could be firmer in his stance on Israel and the conflict with Palestine. That would help him with the youth vote, as they are strongly in favor of a ceasefire. Maybe something breaks that way in Biden’s favor before November, making it a minor issue for voters come election day.

To win this race, Biden just has to keep it slow and steady. Be the safe, low-risk option for the American people while Trump is the loose cannon.

author avatar
Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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