Swing State Betting Markets for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

The presidential election with more twists than we can keep count of has done it again. The past few days have seen a significant shift in the 2024 US election odds as the Democrats and Republicans are now tied to win the November election.

Front-runner Donald Trump and the Republicans have been leading since May, but Vice President Kamala Harris, who only recently took over for incumbent Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, has drawn even in the odds with Trump at political betting sites in just the last couple of days.

On Tuesday, Harris announced her running mate to be Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and even that was a surprise in this election. The betting markets were strongly favoring Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to be the VP pick as he had a better than 70% chance over the weekend. The idea was that Shapiro would lock up Pennsylvania, a much-needed swing state, for Harris, and Walz’s state of Minnesota has never been in doubt for the Democrats.

We’ll see if the Shapiro snub backfires for the Democrats, but the reality is the election probably will come down to 6 swing states as it often does. Remember, it’s a race to 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, and these 6 swing states account for 77 of them:

• Arizona (11 electoral votes)
• Georgia (16 electoral votes)
• Michigan (15 electoral votes)
• Nevada (6 electoral votes)
• Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
• Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)

With all the sudden changes in this election, we thought it would be a good time to check in on what the odds and data look like in the swing states.

Arizona

The current odds to win Arizona at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more):

• Republicans (-165)
• Democrats (+125)

These odds were the same on June 20, so no change here. But something that has changed is we know that Republican Kari Lake will be running for the Senate seat against Democrat Ruben Gallego.

Lake won the Republican primary with 55.4% of the vote to 39.5% for Mark Lamb, but pundits think that was too weak of a win to grow her base enough to beat Gallego in the fall. That still means over 40% of Republicans in Arizona did not vote for Lake, a former TV anchor who has taken a hardline approach into endorsing the MAGA movement for Trump.

At BetOnline, the Democrats are -300 to win the Senate seat, so Lake is favored to lose there. However, she is such an extreme character that it could trigger great turnout by Democrats and independents who want to see the end of the MAGA movement, which could lead to more votes for Harris and the Democrats in Arizona in the general election as well.

Remember, Biden flipped Arizona in 2020 and only won it by 0.3%. This should be a close one and it makes sense why the Republicans are still favored. But don’t be surprised if the presence of Lake on the ticket leads to a negative outcome for Republicans trying to win back a state they usually win.

Georgia

The current odds to win Georgia at BetOnline:

• Republicans (-165; down from -300 in June)
• Democrats (+125; up from +200 in June)

In June, Georgia had the most lopsided odds of the 6 swing states with Republicans getting a 75% chance of victory. They are down to 62.3% according to these odds, and other sources see them dropping even more. According to Election Betting Odds, Republicans have a 54% chance of victory in Georgia.

Why is Georgia suddenly back in play for Democrats? Trump had a bad week, including a heated debate at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention in Chicago last Wednesday where he attacked Kamala Harris on the subject of her multi-racial background.

To make matters worse, Trump attended an Atlanta rally where he attacked Republican Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia. This has Georgia Republicans rallying around Kemp, who is a respected Governor.

The Republicans can still save Georgia and turn it back red for 16 crucial electoral votes, but Trump needs to drop the Kemp attacks from his playlist.

Michigan

The current odds to win Michigan at BetOnline:

• Democrats (-165; up from -140 in June)
• Republicans (+125; down from +100 in June)

Michigan is another crucial part of the “Blue Wall” for Democrats along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It is why some thought Governor Gretchen Whitmer would be a great pick for Harris’ VP, but she took herself out of the running and decided to serve out her term as Governor instead while being a strong ally to the Democrats, who have seen their odds slightly increase since June.

Democrats now have a 62.3% chance of winning Michigan according to the odds at BetOnline. Election Betting Odds thinks the odds are very similar as they are up to 61.5% there as well.

The improved numbers in Michigan are potentially from the selection of Tim Walz as VP instead of Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish. While Walz and Shapiro have essentially the same views on Israel-Palestine, there is a stigma attached to Shapiro for him being Jewish. Michigan has a significant Arab population too, so this is why some thought Walz would benefit more than Shapiro in this crucial swing state.

Nevada

The current odds to win Nevada at BetOnline:

• Republicans (-140; down from -175 in June)
• Democrats (+100; up from +135 in June)

This is another state where Republicans have dropped from June as they look to win back Nevada after the Democrats have won it the previous 4 elections. The margins of victory keep shrinking for Democrats in the state, and Biden won it by 2.4% in 2020.

However, Nevada has a Republican Governor and a competitive Republican (Sam Brown) in a Senate race this fall.

But the sudden boost for the Democrats from the change to Harris-Walz instead of Biden-Harris, combined with Trump’s ridiculed pick of JD Vance, has seen the Democrats push closer in this race. They are even money at BetOnline.

Election Betting Odds still gives Republicans a 52.5% chance of winning Nevada, but even that number is down 8.7 percentage points in the last week.

Pennsylvania

The current odds to win Pennsylvania at BetOnline:

• Democrats (-145; up from -130 in June)
• Republicans (+105; down from -110 in June)

Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes (19) of any swing state, and it is considered the most crucial to winning the election in 2024 for these 2 parties.

Even without the Governor Shapiro pick for vice president, the Democrats have increased their lead with implied odds of 59.2% to win the state. Election Betting Odds is less optimistic at 51.5% with a 3-point drop in the last week. Again, that could be the sting of Shapiro going from a huge favorite to not getting on the final ticket.

But Shapiro is supportive of the Democratic ticket, he’s well-liked in Pennsylvania, and the state also voted in Democrat John Fetterman for the Senate in 2022. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by 1.2%, so it is usually a close race.

Just keep in mind Trump’s upset win in 2016 when he won by 0.7% is the only time since 1992 when the Republicans won Pennsylvania. They’ll likely need to pull that off again to win in 2024.

Wisconsin

The current odds to win Wisconsin at BetOnline:

• Democrats (-120; down from -130 in June)
• Republicans (-120; up from -110 in June)

What we have here in Wisconsin is a tied race according to the latest odds. Not many people seem to be talking about Wisconsin since it didn’t have a candidate in the VP sweepstakes and doesn’t have an interesting Senate race in the fall since the Democrats are -500 to win that seat.

But this could go down as the tightest swing state race in November. Election Betting Odds has Democrats winning 51.5%, which is actually up a few points in the last week.

November Outlook for the US Election

While odds have changed from June, there still seems to be a push towards the Democrats holding Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin and the Republicans winning back Arizona/Georgia/Nevada. But if that happens and everything else holds true, then the Democrats would win the Electoral College 270-268 in one of the closest US elections on record.

But right now, neither party should take Wisconsin for granted. Yes, it’s true that Wisconsin has voted the same way as Michigan and Pennsylvania in every election since 1992. However, those 3 states are not some single-minded entities that are always on the same page. In fact, Wisconsin is the state that has broken rank from Michigan and Pennsylvania 8 times in US election history since 1876:

• 1892: WI backed the Democrat (Grover Cleveland) while MI and PA voted Republican.
• 1912: WI backed the Democrat (Woodrow Wilson) while MI and PA voted Republican.
• 1924: WI backed a 3rd-party candidate (Robert M. La Follette) while MI and PA voted Republican.
• 1944: WI backed the Republican (Thomas E. Dewey) while MI and PA voted for the Democrat again.
• 1948: WI backed the winning Democrat (Harry Truman) while MI and PA voted Republican.
• 1960: WI backed the losing Republican (Richard Nixon) while MIA and PA voted Democrat (JFK).
• 1968: WI again backed Richard Nixon, the winning Republican this time, while the others voted Democrat.
• 1988: WI backed the Democrat (Michael Dukakis) while PA and MI voted for the Republican again.

Expect both tickets to visit the swing states multiple times before November. These states are going to decide who wins this thing.