Home Politics Top 5 2024 U.S. Senate Election Races & What Oddsmakers Are Telling Us

Top 5 2024 U.S. Senate Election Races & What Oddsmakers Are Telling Us

by Scott Kacsmar
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2024-US-Senate-Elections-Races

While 2024 is another presidential election year in the United States, there are also several key races for the U.S. Senate, which is another key branch of government.

Currently, Democrats hold a slight 51-49 edge in the Senate with 48 Democrats and 3 independents who vote with the Democrats creating the majority group of 51 senators. However, there are 34 Senate races in 2024, and experts believe 10 of those could swing from one party to the other.

As you might expect, top-rated sportsbooks and political betting sites have betting markets available for several of the most important Senate races. We look at what the oddsmakers are telling us about 5 of the top races as we move closer to May.


Arizona

Here are the current betting odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) for the parties for the Arizona Senate race:

  • Democrat (-175)
  • Republican (+135)

The sportsbooks are in unison with the Democrats favored at implied odds of 63.6% chance of winning.

Arizona incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema made headlines last year for reasons far more important than her whacky outfits. She switched from the Democratic party to an independent, angering many in the process.


However, Sinema announced in March that she will not seek reelection this year, making it a likely 2-way race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake.

Gallego has been in Congress since 2014 and has been a member of the Arizona House of Representatives. He would be the first Latino to represent Arizona in the Senate. He has rejected the “progressive” label in favor of a more moderate approach to politics.

Lake is the former TV anchor who has switched her political party multiple times over the last 20 years before settling in as a Donald Trump-backed candidate in recent years. In the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, Lake lost to Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs by a slim margin (50.32% to 49.6%).

The most recent poll at FiveThirtyEight sees Gallego at 39% and Lake at 34%, but it is expected to be close again. Arizona has gone with a Democrat in the last 3 Senate races, and abortion is very much on everyone’s minds after a recent ruling in the state to uphold a near-total ban of the procedure from a law from 1864, or a time before Arizona was even a state.

Lake called abortion “the ultimate sin” in 2022 but has recently softened her position to try to appease concerned voters. Still, the abortion topic could sway voters heavily in Arizona to go with the Democratic candidate, Gallego, to replace Sinema and give the state a legitimate Democratic Senator again.


Ohio

Here are the current betting odds from BetOnline for the parties for the Ohio Senate race:

  • Republican (-135)
  • Democrat (-105)

There is a disagreement between the sportsbooks, as Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more) has the Republicans favored more strongly at -150 odds, which would be implied odds of 60%.

While Ohio has been trending red for years, incumbent Sherrod Brown is a Democrat and a 3-term Senator who is seeking reelection. He faces a new challenger in businessman Bernie Moreno, who is a former luxury car dealer.

Ohio was a state that Trump won by 8 points in 2016 and 2020. While Brown was able to win confidently in 2018 to retain his Senate seat, Moreno is a tougher challenger with funding and the support of Trump.

Polling data from March did show Brown defeating all of the Republican challengers, but that was before Moreno won the Republican primary to be the candidate that will challenge him in November.

Brown has been a unicorn in the way he’s won in Ohio as a Democrat and taking the Bovada odds (+115) for him now could be the value play if he is to pull off the upset. The other sportsbooks see this being closer to a toss-up.


Montana

Here are the current betting odds from Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review to learn more) for the parties for the Montana Senate race:

  • Republican (-130)
  • Democrat (-110)

The sportsbooks agree with the implied odds of 56.5% for the Republicans to win in Montana.

Similar to the Ohio race, we have a 3-term Democratic Senator in a state that is usually red, but the Republicans have yet to dethrone Jon Tester since he first won in 2006. He seeks a 4th term this year.

The Republican candidate is former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who is also backed by Trump. However, with Sheehy’s lack of political experience and the funding advantage going to Tester, this could be another race where the proven Democrat has a good shot to keep his Senate seat despite Trump winning Montana by 16 points in 2020.


Nevada

Here are the current betting odds from BetOnline for the parties for the Nevada Senate race:

  • Democrat (-180)
  • Republican (+140)

The sportsbooks agree with the implied odds of 64.3% for the Democrats to maintain their seat in Nevada.

Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen won her Senate seat in 2018 with 50.4% of the vote over Republican incumbent Dean Heller (45.4%). She started her reelection campaign with over $4 million in funding, giving her an early advantage over any Republican challenger.

Military veteran Sam Brown is emerging as the favorite in Trump’s Republican party to challenge for the seat he unsuccessfully tried to run for in 2018, the same year he moved to Nevada from Texas.

Brown has tried a more moderate approach after the admission of his wife Amy, who spoke about an abortion she had in Texas just before she met her husband. Brown is against a federal abortion ban.

Nevada has recently been home to close elections in 2020 and 2022. This one should be close too, but the Democrats do have a fair shot at holding onto this seat.


Wisconsin

Here are the current betting odds from BetOnline for the parties for the Wisconsin Senate race:

  • Democrat (-350)
  • Republican (+225)

The sportsbooks know that many of these races are heavily in favor of one party over the other, which is why they have betting markets for that party’s margin of victory rather than who will win. For example, California has -5000 odds for Democrat Adam Schiff to win. What’s the fun in betting on that?

However, Wisconsin is one of the few toss-up states that still has odds significantly in favor of the Democrats with -350, or an implied chance of 77.8%.

Wisconsin is a mixed state with its Senators. Republican Ron Johnson won reelection last fall by a single point. Now, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin, the 1st openly LGBTQ member in the Senate, is hoping to win a 2nd term after she won by 11 points in 2018.

Wisconsin, albeit a close call both times, switched from Trump to Biden in 2020. Baldwin hopes to build on that.

The favorite for the Republican side is California hedge fund manager Eric Hovde, who Baldwin has wasted no time in taking shots at for his view that elderly people in nursing homes are incapable of voting. It may not be a runaway in November, but Baldwin and the Democrats are likely going to hang onto this one too.

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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