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Latest 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

by Jason Lake
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Staying on message is key when you’re a politician. Donald Trump didn’t waver from his usual talking points during last Thursday’s U.S. presidential debate on CNN – but Joe Biden sure did. In a format where style beats substance, Trump was the clear winner

While the Democratic Party scrambles to shore up Biden’s campaign, or perhaps replace him at the top of the 2024 ticket, Trump’s odds to become president again have improved marginally to -165 at one of our favorite politics betting sites, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more). But there are several more hurdles in front of Trump, including three ongoing trials:

  • Classified Documents Federal trial
  • Election Result Federal trial
  • Georgia Result State trial

Not too long ago, Trump was a slight favorite in each of those three trials to be handed at least one guilty verdict. But now that the Supreme Court has ruled that U.S. presidents have a certain amount of immunity when performing “official” acts, the politics odds at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more) say Trump is more likely to get off clean:

  • Classified Documents -130
  • Election Result -130
  • Georgia Result -165

Will Trump indeed be able to escape the long arm of the law? Perhaps a closer look at the Supreme Court decision will help us find the right bets to place.

What Did the Supreme Court Say?

On Monday, the Supremes ruled 6-3 along party lines that Trump, and all presidents, have absolute immunity from prosecution when it comes to “core” elements of the job. This includes Trump’s interactions with the Justice Department, where he tried to get them to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Outside of these core activities, the court ruled that presidents have some level of immunity for official acts, but not “private” acts. And they left it up to the lower courts to decide which activities fall into which buckets.

Beyond this, the Supremes also emphasized that any official acts cannot be used as evidence in trials, and that the lower courts may not take the president’s motives into account. In theory, this could allow Trump’s lawyers to succeed with their ongoing claim that he wasn’t trying to overturn the election.

What Happens Next?

More delays. With this ruling, the Supremes have now kicked the Classified Documents case back down to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington D.C., who will sort through the 40 felony counts and determine which ones Trump may be immune from.

Meanwhile, Trump’s July 11 sentencing hearing for the “Hush Money” case in New York has been moved to September 18, to give Justice Juan Merchan and Trump’s lawyers time to hash everything out. Legal experts say it’s unlikely this case will be affected by the Supreme Court decision, since the felonies in question happened before Trump became president.

Is Trump a Safe Bet?

Delays like this have long been part of Trump’s legal strategy, but in this instance, he runs the risk of having his sentence handed down so close to November 5 that it sticks in the minds of voters. But for the other three cases, it’s pretty much a given now that none of them will proceed before the election – and if Trump wins the vote, that’s almost certainly the end for all three trials.

If those trials do indeed get canceled, those bets will still pay off as Trump receiving zero guilty verdicts. It’s a tempting wager given that Trump is -165 to regain the presidency; even if he doesn’t, it’s possible that the Supreme Court will continue siding with him, and keep moving the goalposts to the point where Trump’s prosecutors have nothing left to work with.

Biden’s Pardon

There is one other way Trump can escape justice: if Joe Biden pardons him before the 2024 election. You can bet on that happening at +750, although the other side is a lot more likely at -1900. Place your wagers accordingly.

Is Trump Afraid of RFK Jr.?

Not that the 3rd-party candidate has any real shot of winning in 2024, but independent Robert F. Kennedy can have an impact on who wins the election. It will depend on which leading candidate he steals more votes from. Experts have disagreed on who that candidate is, but recent speculation suggests it may actually be Trump who is hurt more by Kennedy’s presence in the race.

Trump has recently upped his public attacks on Kennedy, calling him a “Democrat plant” and “Radical Left Liberal.” Getting called names by Trump is a good way of him showing which candidate he worries about more. He moved on quickly from Ron DeSantis last year to start bashing Nikki Haley, who was his final challenger for the Republican nomination.

Some think a possible way for RFK Jr. to attract Trump voters is through his vaccine beliefs. Some have called him an anti-vaxxer, and perhaps the nicest thing you could say is he’s not a big fan of vaccine mandates. Kennedy tried to defend his vaccine stance on Real Time with Bill Maher last Friday.

This vaccine angle could attract right-leaning voters who may be tired of the Trump trial saga and still have respect for the Kennedy family name.

Kennedy is only polling at about 10% nationwide, so winning the election in November is the longshot of all longshots. But like how Jill Stein took away key votes from Hillary Clinton in 2016, Kennedy still can make a big impact on this election’s winner.

Updated Election Odds

Donald TrumpRepublican-170-175-172-175
Joe BidenDemocrat+500+350+566+550
Robert Kennedy Jr.Independent+5000+4500+14590+3500

author avatar
Jason Lake
Jason has been writing about sports betting since 2002. He earned his B.A. in Pacific and Asian Studies from the University of Victoria back in 1997. He has a passion for all things sports betting.

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