Home Politics Latest 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Latest 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

by Scott Kacsmar
0 comment

While key states like Florida and Ohio are among the 5 states holding primaries on Tuesday, the rematch for November’s U.S. presidential election has already been set.

Last Tuesday, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump secured enough delegates to earn the nominations for their respective parties. These will not be formally announced until the Democratic and Republican conventions are held this summer, but it is a foregone conclusion that we will see Biden vs. Trump again on the ballots in November.

But the other development in the last week was that independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was floating the idea of choosing 4-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers to be his vice president. That slice of craziness didn’t last but a few days before Kennedy reportedly was targeting Nicole Shanahan, the tech lawyer who backed his Super Bowl ad with $4 million this year.

Did that do anything for the odds of the 3rd-party’s best hope in this year’s election? Nope. According to Election Betting Odds, Kennedy still has just a 2.8% chance of winning in November.

What about the updated odds for Biden and Trump? Let’s take a look at the past week before heading into the political betting sites.

Joe Biden’s Solid Week

Following his well-received State of the Union address, President Biden had another good showing in last Tuesday’s primaries, easily winning in Georgia, Mississippi, Northern Mariana Islands and Washington. That was enough to put him over the needed threshold to clinch enough delegates to earn the Democratic nomination.

Biden is now at -1500 odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) to be the Democratic nominee, up from -300 just two weeks ago.

CandidatePartyBetOnlineBetAnySportsBookmakerBovadaEverygameHeritage Sports
Donald TrumpRepublican-105-125-104+110N/AN/A
Joe BidenDemocrat-105-110+114+120N/AN/A
Michelle ObamaDemocrat+2200+2000+2750+2500N/AN/A
Robert Kennedy Jr.Independent+2200+2200+2800+3000N/A+1400
Gavin NewsomDemocrat+3300+3000+5300+4500N/AN/A
Kamala HarrisDemocrat+3300+3300+6500+7000N/AN/A
Any Other Party+2900

Polling is everywhere these days, and the reliability of the data collected from the polls is debatable now. But the tide is starting to slowly turn for Biden on this front. Newsweek reported that 3 different polls in the last week have Biden barely edging out Trump in November’s election:

  • Biden leads Trump 46% to 45% (margin of error: +/- 3.5 percentage points) in a survey by the Progress Action fund, conducted by Public Policy Polling, and reported by The Hill.
  • In a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters, Biden got 39% of the vote and Trump got 38% in a poll that was conducted March 7-13 with margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points.
  • In a Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters, Biden got 45% of the vote and Trump got 44% in a survey that was conducted March 9-12 with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Again, everything is razor close, but that is the state of the race in this country.

Trump’s Not-So-Great Week

Last week started well for Donald Trump with big wins in the primaries held in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington. He secured enough delegates to become the Republican party’s nominee for president.

But all was not well after Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice president, did not endorse him when he appeared on Fox News last Friday.

“It should come as no surprise that I will not be endorsing Donald Trump this year,” Pence said. “That being said, during my presidential campaign I made it clear that there were profound differences between me and President Trump on a range of issues, and not just our difference on my constitutional duties that I exercised on January 6.”

Pence’s refusal to not certify the election votes on January 6, 2021, hours after Trump’s supporters chanted “Hang Mike Pence!” at the Capitol, created an unrepairable rift between Pence and Trump.

Trump does not handle rejection well, and he sparked more controversy over the weekend when his comments about a bloodbath if he doesn’t get elected went viral and were attacked by Biden as a threat of political violence in the future.

“Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath, for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it,” Trump said on March 16 at a rally in Ohio.

The Trump campaign was quick to defend the comments with the context of Trump talking about a bloodbath from an economic standpoint as he was talking about the auto industry when he said this.

To make matters worse, as of Monday, the Trump team was struggling to find a way to pay the $464 million bond he owes for the judgment in his New York civil fraud case where he was found to have inflated his wealth. The deadline is approaching for this to be paid, so Trump could be in major financial trouble soon.

Election Odds Update

Despite the good March for Biden, he is still trailing Trump in the odds to win November’s general election. However, he is seeing improvement in his odds thanks to the realization that this is a 2-horse race once again.

At BetOnline, Trump has improved to -120 odds, which is up from -110 a week ago. But Biden has also improved from +150 to +120 going into Tuesday’s latest primaries, where he will do very well again.

At Bovada (visit our Bovada Review to learn more), odds are less optimistic for Biden as he remains at +150 there to win the presidency again. However, Trump can be found at Bovada with -110 odds, so that’s a better price than -120 for any Trump bettor out there. The next closest candidate is Michelle Obama (+2000), who has already said she has no plans to run for the Democratic party this year.

Despite the disconnect in odds between these top-rated offshore sportsbooks, they look at things differently when it comes to the winning party this November:

  • BetOnline has Republicans at -120 odds to win and Democrats at +100 (any other party is +2200).
  • Bovada has Republicans at -115 odds to win and Democrats at +105 (any other party is +3000).

BetOnline’s Republican odds match Trump’s winning odds, but Bovada is offering a slightly better price (+105) for Democrats. But the better bet there is Biden at +150, if you believe the Democrats are going to win. He is almost certainly going to be the candidate in November.

According to Election Betting Odds, Trump has a 47.9% chance of winning in November, which is down from 50.8% a week ago. This is the first time in nearly 2 full months since Trump was below 50% to win. Biden is continuing his steady climb, as he’s gone from 32.6% to 34.7% to 37.7% over the last few weeks.

Finally, according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating has gone up from 38.0% a week ago to 38.6%, showing minor improvement at a range that is still poor. Trump was at 43.0% on this same day (Day 1,154) in his presidency.

The race is tightening up as everyone realizes it is Biden vs. Trump again, but the sitting president still needs to make a push to get these numbers even tighter before November.

author avatar
Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

You may also like

JoeWager is your leading source for trending topics relevant to offshore gamblers, including betting resources, sports & casino guides, entertainment topics, politics and more.

Editors' Picks

Latest Articles

Copyright 2023 – All Right Reserved.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More