Home Politics What Will Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Be at the End of June?

What Will Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Be at the End of June?

by Scott Kacsmar
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Joe Bidens Approval Rating

If Joe Biden wants to retain the U.S. presidency for another term, he likely needs to see his approval rating increase. Love it or hate it, the approval rating metric has proven to have a solid correlation with the outcome of a president’s reelection bid.

According to Gallup, Biden’s approval rating for the period of March 1-20, 2024 was only 40%. At FiveThirtyEight, his approval rating in the middle of April is hovering closer to 39%.

However, can Biden improve that number going into the summer? No president has won another term with an approval rating under 46% in the month of June since Harry Truman in 1948, which marks a very long time ago in U.S. politics.

You will be able to bet on Biden’s approval rating at the end of June at political betting sites. Before that, let’s take a look at the importance of this number and what optimism, if any, Biden has of improving it by the end of June.

Approval Ratings Do Correlate to Election Results

Thanks to Gallup, we have approval rating data on every president’s reelection bid since Truman in 1948. We specifically have data from the month of June, which is based on the average approval rating throughout that month.

We sorted the last 12 presidents in their reelection bids by descending June approval rating from Gallup:

  • Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 – 74% (won)
  • Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 – 72% (won)
  • Richard Nixon, 1972 – 59% (won)
  • Bill Clinton, 1996 – 55% (won)
  • Ronald Reagan, 1984 – 54% (won)
  • George W. Bush, 2004 – 49% (won)
  • Barack Obama, 2012 – 46% (won)
  • Gerald Ford, 1976 – 45% (lost)
  • Harry Truman, 1948 – 40% (won)
  • Donald Trump, 2020 – 38% (lost)
  • George H.W. Bush, 1992 – 37% (lost)
  • Jimmy Carter, 1980 – 32% (lost)

Plain and simple, everyone who had at least 46% approval in June won reelection (7-0) while no one since Truman who was under 46% won another term (1-4 overall). This only gives Biden 2.5 months to get his approval rating back in the mid-40s range. That is not much time.

Can Biden Rebound by the End of June?

One finding from Gallup data is that a president’s approval rating usually doesn’t change much from June until the final number before November’s general election. Still, can Biden make up ground in the range of 6-to-7 percentage points to get around 46% in 2.5 months? Losing ground like that is easy to do, but gaining is a different story.

Looking over Biden’s approval rating during the course of his presidency, there is one moment where he made up 6 percentage points in a month.

  • In the period of July 5-26, 2022, Biden’s approval rating was 38%.
  • In the period of August 1-23, 2022, Biden’s approval rating was 44%.
  • He improved his rating by 6 percentage points in a month.

What did Biden accomplish that month to help boost his rating? He made big waves with legislation, signing the massive Inflation Reduction Act into law on August 16, 2022. Many aspects of his failed Build Back Better Act went into that Inflation Reduction Act.

Later that month, he rolled out the first of his plans for student loan relief for borrowers, another campaign promise he made to voters.

Biden also did all of this in August after overcoming a late July diagnosis of COVID-19, so public sympathy may have been at a high for him in dealing with the virus.

However, at the end of the day, results and getting things done really matter to people. Biden will have to get more things done before his term ends this summer to get more support from the people.

How High Can Biden’s Approval Rating Realistically Get?

If you look at the odds at some offshore sportsbooks, you can bet on what Biden’s approval rating will be on May 1st, which is coming up soon:

  • 39.00-39.99% (+200)
  • 38.00-38.99% (+250)
  • 40.00-40.99% (+250)
  • Under 38% (+600)
  • 41.00-41.99% (+800)
  • 42% or higher (+2000)

Not much change is expected from his current rating of around 39%. Still, you can see with +2000 odds just how unlikely it would be for him to go up 3 percentage points to 42% or higher in the last half of April.

But realistically, how high can Biden’s approval rating climb in the next 2.5 months? The 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) is not until August 19, which is where Biden will formally accept his party’s nomination along with likely retaining Kamala Harris as his vice president.

So, any boost to come from that event is not going to come until late August. For now, Biden can hope that rival Donald Trump has a rough 2.5 months in court as his hush-money case involving Stormy Daniels just started Monday, and Trump is still involved in 3 other criminal cases as well. A bad run for Trump can make Biden look better in comparison.

However, Biden has a most delicate situation to handle with his country’s support for Israel. It was already a controversial issue with Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Some felt Biden needed to be sterner in his warning to Israel of how it handles retaliation for the October 7 attacks.

Then over the weekend, Iran sent hundreds of missiles and drones to Israel in another unprecedented attack, most of which was handled by defense systems, including help from the United States.

Still, Biden cannot drag the U.S. into that conflict with Iran, a situation that could explode into a large-scale war if not handled properly. If handled well on Biden’s end, this could actually help him as he’ll be viewed as a peacemaker who did not allow this to escalate out of control.

Keeping Israel restrained is Biden’s big task this summer, but he cannot be fully occupied with that alone. He also has to convince the American people that the economy is doing fine, the job market is strong and inflation is coming down. He also has to build a strong case against another Trump term, which should be the easiest thing to accomplish on the Democrats’ to-do list.

Conclusion: Biden’s Approval Rating Unlikely to Reach 46% by July

Still, the truth is we are living in very partisan times where the culture war is always raging and tribalism is at its highest since arguably the last U.S. Civil War in the 1860s. Throw in the fact that so many people are tired of both Biden and Trump as the leading candidates of their parties, and it might be improbable for anyone to have a very high approval rating at this time.

Biden is unlikely to get to that passable range of 46% approval by the end of June, which has been a bare minimum number for reelection since the 1950s. But could he get to something like 43% in the next 2.5 months if he handles Israel properly? That seems doable, and in these heated times where the alternative is 4 more years of Donald Trump, 43% might not doom Biden in November either.

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Scott Kacsmar
NFL football picks are Scott Kacsmar's expertise, serving as his main focus. He has contributed to various sports websites and blogs, such as NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, and, JoeWager. Originating from Pittsburgh, Scott maintains a love-hate connection with the Pirates.

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